The economic dimension of the food gap and food security of red meat in Egypt | ||
| Egyptian Journal of Agricultural Research | ||
| Article 9, Volume 100, Issue 1, March 2022, Pages 96-106 PDF (793.94 K) | ||
| Document Type: Original Article | ||
| DOI: 10.21608/ejar.2022.105571.1170 | ||
| Authors | ||
| Emad M. Abd El-Shaheed* 1; Amal A. Swefy2 | ||
| 1Agriculture Economics Research Institute | ||
| 2Agricultural Economics Research Institute, Agricultural Research Center, Giza, Egypt | ||
| Abstract | ||
| The research aimed to identify the economic dimension of the food gap and food security for red meat in Egypt. The research relied on the general temporal trend model, and the U-Thiel coefficient for prediction in addition to food security indicators, and in achieving its objectives, the research relied on secondary data.Study of the expected situation of the economic indicators of red meat in Egypt until 2025 revealed an expected increase in both production and consumption, the quantity of imports, the food gap, the average per capita share and the price of a kilo of red meat in 2020 from 944, 1502, 558, 505 thousand tons, respectively, in 2020 to about 990, 1644, 653, 586, thousand tons respectively in 2025 and 16.5 kg/year per capita to 17 kg/year in 2025, and the price of a kilo of red meat increased from 34 pounds to about 39 pounds in 2025, and the expectation that the self-sufficiency rate would decrease from 62% in 2020 to 57.5% in 2025 of red meat in Egypt, and that the factors that affect the food gap are production and consumption and the existence of an inverse relationship between the gap and production and a direct relationship between consumption and the gap, while the size of the change in the value of total production reached Of red meat between the base and comparison periods, it amounted to about 60.711 million pounds, of which due to the change in the amount of total production by about 3038 million pounds, representing about 5%, and the change in the price of a kilogram of red meat was estimated at about 48.104 million pounds, that is, the change in the average price of a kilogram ,of the red meat between the base and comparison periods, it contributed about 79.2% of the change in the value of the total production of red meat, which means that there is a relative superiority of the causes of the change, and the size of the change in the value of the total production reached Of red meat due to the combined effect of the change in both production and the price of a kilogram of meat between the base and comparison periods, about 9570 million pounds, representing about 15.8% of the volume of change in the production value of red meat, and that the coverage period of local production for local consumption has decreased by about 1 4% per year during the study period. This is not a good indicator for the Egyptian economy, which indicates a decline in food security of meat in Egypt, and the import coverage period for sweets consumption has increased by about 3.2% per year, and this increase is statistically significant at a significant level of 0.01, which indicates that the import coverage period For local consumption, it is covered by importing from abroad. It was found that there was a shortage of red meat for local consumption during the rest of the years and the other for the period (1995-2019) As the total deficit was estimated at 397.59 thousand tons, estimated at about 12.77 days, and it was covered by drawing from the strategic stock, increasing the amount of the deficit over the amount of the surplus directed to the development of the strategic stock, and then the ratio of the deficit to the surplus amounted to about 93.31% at the end The study period. The food security coefficient for red meat and in Egypt is estimated at about 0.04 during the study period, and therefore it is necessary to increase the strategic stock of red meat for local consumption for at least 6 months, until the value of the food security coefficient reaches 0.5 according to food security considerations, and the security coefficient is estimated Red meat diet by 0.02 during the period (2020-2025), There is a direct and statistically significant relationship between red meat consumption and annual per capita income (Q2), ie an increase in annual per capita income by 1% leads to an increase in red meat consumption in Egypt by 0.28 thousand tons. | ||
| Keywords | ||
| Red meat; food gap; Coefficient of inequality for Theil (U-Theil)- strategic stock; food security factor | ||
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