Egypt's Inflation determinants An Empirical Study | ||||
| مجلة البحوث المالية والتجارية | ||||
| Article 9, Volume 24, Issue 1 - Serial Number 3, January 2023, Page 270-295 PDF (733.71 K) | ||||
| Document Type: المقالة الأصلية | ||||
| DOI: 10.21608/jsst.2023.198503.1577 | ||||
 View on SCiNiTO | ||||
| Author | ||||
أحمد الرفاعي محمد امام 
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| المعهد الكندي العالي للادارة بالسادس من اكتوبر | ||||
| Abstract | ||||
| The study analyzes the impact of a number of macroeconomics factors, which represent both sides of supply and demand, on Egypt's inflation rate during a specific time frame (1990-2022). This study examined whether the exchange rate, lending interest rates, monetary supply, and investment effect Egypt's Inflation symmetrically or asymmetrically. Semi-annual data was analyzed using Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) econometric method. The study's findings, Egypt's local currency devaluation negatively affects long-term and short-term inflation. Results also show that negative shocks to lending interest rates are insignificant in long and short - run. Findings also show illiterate that positive shocks to lending rates have negative long-term impacts on inflation and positive short-term one. Money’s negative effect on inflation suggests that Egypt's long-term and short-term inflation is caused by other variables. The research also showed that positive shocks to gross fixed capital formation lower long-term inflation. Short run negative shocks were insignificant, Inflation decreases as Egypt's gross fixed capital formation rises. Long-term inflation rates would drop with increased government spending, the data showed. The results indicated that government spending increases would result in a long-term decline in inflation rates. | ||||
| Keywords | ||||
| inflation; Monetary supply; government spending | ||||
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