Asymmetric Impact of the Policy of Floating Egyptian Exchange Rate on the Performance of Agricultural Foreign Trade "التأثير غير المتماثل لسياسة تعويم سعر الصرف المصري على أداء التجارة الخارجية الزراعية" | ||||
| Alexandria Journal of Agricultural Sciences | ||||
| Article 4, Volume 68, Issue 3, September 2023, Page 194-217 PDF (1.56 MB) | ||||
| Document Type: Original Article | ||||
| DOI: 10.21608/alexja.2023.225627.1040 | ||||
 View on SCiNiTO | ||||
| Author | ||||
Mona Hosny Gad  
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| Senior Researcher, Agricultural Policy and Project Evaluation Research Department, Agricultural Economy Research Institute, Agricultural Research Center, Cairo, Egypt. | ||||
| Abstract | ||||
| The research aimed to study the effect of currency devaluation on the performance of the trade balance, for some agricultural commodities, according to the elasticity approach, during the period (January 2008-December 2022), and the results showed that there are 18 traded commodities in the long run that have an asymmetric effect. They are affected differently by appreciation versus depreciation, according to the results of the “Nonlinear ARDL” model. The ML condition was also achieved in the long run at the level of flows of 21 commodity groups according to the estimates of at least one of the “ARDL, NARDL, FMOLS” models, while it was not met in 4 commodity groups represented in oils, oilseeds, fish, coffee and tea, which may be due to insufficient local production to meet consumption, and then the increase in import prices in local currency was not followed by a decrease in imports from those commodities. | ||||
| Keywords | ||||
| Nonlinear ARDL; FMOLS Model; Marshall–Lerner; J-Curve; Import/Export Elasticity | ||||
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