Numerical Approach for Predicting Social Accounting Matrix Based on Multiplier System. | ||
| The Egyptian Statistical Journal | ||
| Article 8, Volume 42, Issue 1, June 1998, Pages 115-142 PDF (25.7 M) | ||
| Document Type: Original Article | ||
| DOI: 10.21608/esju.1998.314568 | ||
| Authors | ||
| R. S.M. Hassan* 1; W. B.M. Meshhal2 | ||
| 1Dep. of Statistics, Faculty of Economics & Political Science, Cairo University, Egypt. | ||
| 2Development Research & Technological Planning Center | ||
| Abstract | ||
| This paper introduces new concepts in projecting a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) using multiplier matrix as a cofactor for an objective policy plan vector. Three estimates for SAM cells are derived from three versions of this policy vector. The SAM estimates are operationally calculated based on those two components, namely, endogenous and exogenous data in terms of multiplier matrix and policy vector respectively. Both of the two are related in balance equations so as to satisfy the equilibrium restrictions of the SAM. But these restrictions are partially satisfied first by balancing that endogenous part which concerns the productive sectors in SAM. The other part of SAM constituting the transfers sectors has faced a problem of estimation for its exogenous transfers submatrix conditioned by SAM balance and policy requirements. Therefore, two main tasks around which the work of this paper is concentrated. One is to build a compatible multiplier system with SAM structure such that its components may thoroughly reflects the different types of transactions between the SAM accounts. The second task is to estimate the whole SAM cells in accordance with both of the multiplier equations system and the balance restrictions achievement. However, to accomplish this work through multiplier usage three policies, namely, expenditure, income and combined of the two are exploited in the system and resulting in three estimates of SAM. The solution methodology is mostly numerical. The application of this study was to a projection for Egyptian SAM in 1994/1995. | ||
| Keywords | ||
| Equilibrium Restrictions; Multiplier System; Numerical Approach; Prediction; Social Accounting Matrix; Projection | ||
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