An examination of the effect of exchange rate on food security: the case of Egypt | ||||
| مجلة البØوث المالية والتجارية | ||||
| Volume 26, Issue 1, January 2025, Page 544-565 PDF (491.16 K) | ||||
| Document Type: المقالة الأصلية | ||||
| DOI: 10.21608/jsst.2024.330370.1892 | ||||
 View on SCiNiTO | ||||
| Author | ||||
رغدة سعيد  
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| جامعة 6 أکتوبر | ||||
| Abstract | ||||
| This paper addresses the effect of exchange rate on accessibility of sufficient nutritious food, or in other word, its effect on food security in Egypt without any moderator during the period (2000 –2022). The research has used Dicky Fuller test of stationarity, and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound testing framework, using the variables of exchange rate, per capita food supply variability, and some control variables, that shape the model like gross domestic product, inflation rate, unemployment rate and interest rate. The analysis reveals significant statistical effects of various factors on food security (PCFS) at the 5% significance level. Specifically, for every 1 unit increase in exchange rate (EXR), PCFS increases by 0.2603 units (p-value ≤ 0.05). Similarly, a 1 unit increase in inflation (INF) leads to a 0.0001 unit increase in PCFS (p-value ≤ 0.05). Conversely, an increase of 1 unit in interest rate (INT) results in a decrease of 0.001 units in PCFS (p-value ≤ 0.05), while a decrease of 1 unit in unemployment (UNEM) corresponds to a 0.364 unit decrease in PCFS (p-value ≤ 0.05). An increase of 1 unit in gross domestic product (GDP) contributes to a 0.273 unit increase in PCFS (p-value ≤ 0.05).The paper is important as it put the shades on the impact of changing foreign exchange rates, that has government attention, on the national security of Egypt represented by food security, and it also suggests some polices that solve this problem like the policies that encourage local agricultural growth, and so forth. | ||||
| Keywords | ||||
| food production; exchange rate; food prices; sustainable development; inflation rate | ||||
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