An Economic Study of the Impact of Climate Change on the Productivity of Egyptian Potato Crops "دراسة اقتصادية لأثر التغيرات المناخية على إنتاجية محصول البطاطس المصرية" | ||
| Alexandria Journal of Agricultural Sciences | ||
| Article 1, Volume 70, Issue 2, June 2025, Pages 108-116 PDF (2.53 M) | ||
| Document Type: Original Article | ||
| DOI: 10.21608/alexja.2025.346033.1118 | ||
| Author | ||
| Maha Mohamed Bastawy Ahmed* | ||
| Dept. of Agricultural Economics , Faculty of Agriculture , Ain Shams University , Cairo, Egypt | ||
| Abstract | ||
| With the increasing population in Egypt, the food problem is becoming more severe year after year, especially with the climate changes accompanying this increase, as climate changes greatly affect the agricultural sector, whether plant or animal, due to their impact on crop productivity and the need of plants and animals for larger quantities of water, as well as on crop structures, which leads to an increase in the food gap between the quantities produced and consumed, which necessitates an attempt to expand vertically agricultural production on the one hand and an attempt to know the impact of climate changes on the production of agricultural crops on the other hand to try to reduce the impact of these changes as much as possible. Climate changes have led to a decrease in the productivity of many important strategic crops, such as the potato crop, whose productivity decreased in 2020 to become 12.10 tons per acre. The research aims to study the impact of climate change (maximum and minimum temperatures, humidity, rainfall) on the potato crop in different seasons in Egypt. The most influential climatic factors on the productivity of the summer potato crop in Egypt's governorates during the period (2019-2023) are the maximum temperature in February (planting seedlings), the temperature The minimum temperature in June, the relative humidity in May, and the dummy variable reflecting the governorates of Central Egypt and the governorates outside the borders, where it became clear from the results that increasing each of the mentioned climate factors by one unit leads to a statistically significant decrease in the productivity of the acre of summer potatoes by a percentage of about 4.11, 5.32, and 3.43 tons per acre, respectively, and the dummy variable (D2.D4) showed a decrease in potato productivity in the governorates of Central Egypt and the governorates outside the borders, but the significance of the decrease was not proven. | ||
| Keywords | ||
| Climate change; Potato crop; Transition variables- forecasting | ||
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