Current and future situation of the economics of dairy production and consumption in Egypt | ||||
| Damietta Journal of Agricultural Sciences | ||||
| Volume 2, Issue 1, January 2023, Page 79-92 PDF (1.89 MB) | ||||
| Document Type: Original Article | ||||
| DOI: 10.21608/djas.2023.405945 | ||||
 View on SCiNiTO | ||||
| Authors | ||||
Fawzy Abo El-Enein1; Seham Dawoud1; Samir Metwally2; El-Sayed Atallah  1; Shaimaa El zaher1
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| 1Department of Agricultural Economics and Social Sciences, Faculty of Agriculture, Damietta University, Egypt | ||||
| 2Agricultural Economics Research Institute Agricultural Research Center, Egypt | ||||
| Abstract | ||||
| Dairy its cheapest sources of food for humans, as it is a semi-complete food, although dairy production in Egypt has increased from 3.6% of total agriculture production in the year 2000 to about 8.2% in the year 2019, it only accounts for 0.85% of the gross national production. Furthermore, the selfsufficiency rates of dairy products have increased from 79% to 91% during the same period. However, the individual’s yearly consumption of dairy products has declined from 77.5 Kg to only 58.2 Kg in the same period. The study aims to identify the current and future situation of the determinants of the economics dairy production and consumption, to achieve its objectives. The main results: (1) The value of dairy production amounted to about 44 billion pounds in 2019, representing about 23% of the value of animal production, and the annual growth rate was about 11.9% during period 2000/2019. (2) A relative increase of one unit of each of the productivity of alfalfa, green summer fodder (1000 tons), the number of milking animal units (1000 animal units) leads to a relative increase in milk production by about 0.497, 0.476, 0.576, respectively. In addition, a relative increase in the real retail price of milk leads to a relative decrease milk consumption by about 0.388. (3) Dairy production is expected to increase in 2025 by about 8.21% of the volume of production in 2019, and consumption is expected to increase by about 5.09% during the same period. The elasticity of spending on dairy at the level of the Republic was about 0.407. The study recommends: Work to increasing cows and buffaloes with high production breeds to meet the increasing demand for milk as rustle increasing population rates, and encouraging spending on dairy in a way that is commensurate with the average household expenditure for the Republic. | ||||
| Keywords | ||||
| Production Milk; Consumption Milk; ARIMA model forecasting; Elasticity of Spending | ||||
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