Prediction of Covid-19 Cases in Egypt Using ARIMA Models | ||
| مجلة البØوث التجارية المعاصرة | ||
| Volume 37, Issue 1, March 2023, Pages 155-176 PDF (750.24 K) | ||
| DOI: 10.21608/sjcp.2023.419645 | ||
| Authors | ||
| عبد الوهاب السيد Øجاج* ; Ù…Øمد عبد السلام عجمي* | ||
| كلية التجارة - جامعة الأزهر | ||
| Abstract | ||
| COVID-19 is one of the massive challenges that has faced the world since the end of World War II. Egypt was one of the countries that were seriously affected by COVID-19. As a result, the Egyptian authorities, and government had to take many precautionary and preventive procedures to protect Egyptian citizens. This research aims to model confirmed cases of Covid-19 infections in Egypt from (March 4th, 2020) to (June 29th, 2021) as an estimation period of the model, while the data from (June 30th (2021) to (July 14th, 2021) was used as a prediction period. It has been proved that The ARIMA (4,1,5) model is the appropriate and efficient one for representing the time series data, with the least mean squares of MSE errors after comparing several ARIMA models at the first differences. It was, also, concluded that the number of infected people is going to increase. So, it is necessary for the Egyptian authorities to take urgent precautionary measures to limit this pandemic increase. | ||
| Keywords | ||
| Covid-19; time series; ARIMA models; forecasting; Box-Jenkins method | ||
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