The Impact of Inflation, Exchange Rate, Interest Rate, and External Debt-to-GDP Ratio on Economic Growth in Egypt: A Quarterly Analysis (2012–2022) Using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator Regression (LASSO)
Fathy Morsy, M. (2025). The Impact of Inflation, Exchange Rate, Interest Rate, and External Debt-to-GDP Ratio on Economic Growth in Egypt: A Quarterly Analysis (2012–2022) Using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator Regression (LASSO). EKB Journal Management System, 55(1), 67-104. doi: 10.21608/jsec.2025.420837
Mohamed Fathy Morsy. "The Impact of Inflation, Exchange Rate, Interest Rate, and External Debt-to-GDP Ratio on Economic Growth in Egypt: A Quarterly Analysis (2012–2022) Using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator Regression (LASSO)". EKB Journal Management System, 55, 1, 2025, 67-104. doi: 10.21608/jsec.2025.420837
Fathy Morsy, M. (2025). 'The Impact of Inflation, Exchange Rate, Interest Rate, and External Debt-to-GDP Ratio on Economic Growth in Egypt: A Quarterly Analysis (2012–2022) Using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator Regression (LASSO)', EKB Journal Management System, 55(1), pp. 67-104. doi: 10.21608/jsec.2025.420837
Fathy Morsy, M. The Impact of Inflation, Exchange Rate, Interest Rate, and External Debt-to-GDP Ratio on Economic Growth in Egypt: A Quarterly Analysis (2012–2022) Using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator Regression (LASSO). EKB Journal Management System, 2025; 55(1): 67-104. doi: 10.21608/jsec.2025.420837

The Impact of Inflation, Exchange Rate, Interest Rate, and External Debt-to-GDP Ratio on Economic Growth in Egypt: A Quarterly Analysis (2012–2022) Using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator Regression (LASSO)

المجلة العلمية للإقتصاد و التجارة
Volume 55, Issue 1, April 2025, Page 67-104  XML PDF (1.06 MB)
Document Type: المقالة الأصلية
DOI: 10.21608/jsec.2025.420837
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Author
Mohamed Fathy Morsy
ESLSCA University
Abstract
This dissertation proposal investigates the impact of macroeconomic variables—specifically inflation rate, real interest rate, exchange rate, and external debt to GDP ratio—on Egypt's economic growth rate from Q1 2012 to Q4 2022. The study employs Lasso regression, an advanced statistical technique, to address multicollinearity issues often overlooked in previous research. By analyzing quarterly data from the Central Bank of Egypt, the research reveals significant positive effects of inflation and real interest rates on economic growth, contrary to the negative impacts of the exchange rate and external debt to GDP ratio.
 
This study contributes original insights to the existing literature on Egypt's economic dynamics, providing valuable guidance for policymakers to formulate strategies that foster sustainable economic growth.
 
Keywords
Economic Growth;   External Debt; Inflation Rate; Exchange Rate; Lasso Regression
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