Economic Analysis of the Most Important Factors Affecting Egypt's Agricultural GDP | ||||
| Alexandria Science Exchange Journal | ||||
| Article 16, Volume 46, Issue 2, June 2025, Page 263-278 PDF (516.48 K) | ||||
| Document Type: Original Article | ||||
| DOI: 10.21608/asejaiqjsae.2025.426465 | ||||
 View on SCiNiTO | ||||
| Author | ||||
Ahmed Mahmoud Abd El-Aziz Mohamed 
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| Agricultural Economics Research Institute - Agricultural Research Center - Giza - Egypt | ||||
| Abstract | ||||
| Egypt's agricultural GDP reflects the success of the country's agricultural policy in terms of the economy's ability to produce various agricultural goods and services. The research aims to identify the most important economic variables affecting the Egyptian agricultural GDP by developing an appropriate standard model. The results showed that increasing agricultural investments, agricultural labor, crop area, and the value of agricultural exports by 1% led to an increase in agricultural GDP by 0.11%, 8.72%, 9.82%, and 0.24%, respectively. A 1% increase in agricultural GDP, the US dollar exchange rate against the Egyptian pound, interest rates, agricultural loans, and the value of agricultural exports led to an increase in agricultural investments by 0.96%, 0.34%, 3.38%, 0.75%, and 0.32%, respectively. A 1% increase in agricultural investments, inflation rate, population, and average annual wage of agricultural workers led to an increase in agricultural employment by 0.002%, 0.01%, 0.11%, and 0.04%, respectively. The results also showed an expected increase in agricultural GDP, agricultural investments, and agricultural labor to approximately 1,456.68 billion Egyptian pounds, 44.55 billion Egyptian pounds, and 7.35 million workers in 2030. In light of the research results, the study recommends the need to increase agricultural investments, which will provide the resources needed to increase production, and to work on increasing the interest rate, which will provide more funds for government agricultural investment, and to work on using hybrid models in forecasting, given the accuracy of this method in forecasting. | ||||
| Keywords | ||||
| Egyptian agricultural GDP; three-stage the least squares (3LSL); hybrid forecasting method; artificial neural network (ANN); ARIMA model | ||||
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