The Econometric Estimation of the Relationship Between Investment and Economic Growth for the Agricultural Sector in Egypt | ||||
| Assiut Journal of Agricultural Sciences | ||||
| Article 28, Volume 56, Issue 2, April 2025, Page 411-430 PDF (714.41 K) | ||||
| Document Type: Original Article | ||||
| DOI: 10.21608/ajas.2025.358232.1460 | ||||
 View on SCiNiTO | ||||
| Author | ||||
Sayed A. Hassan 
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| Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture – Assiut University, Assiut, Egypt. | ||||
| Abstract | ||||
| GDP is the standard measure of economic growth, reflecting the production of goods and services over a specific period. Investment levels significantly influence economic activity and long-term growth. This study employs econometric estimation to examine the relationship between investment and economic development in Egypt’s agricultural sector from 1991 to 2023. Agricultural investments are considered a key driver alongside other explanatory economic variables such as exports, imports, labor, inflation, and exchange rates. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was applied to analyze the factors affecting agricultural GDP and, consequently, agricultural economic growth. The results indicate that the error correction term CointEq(-1) is negative and significant (-0.743, p = 0.003), meeting the necessary and sufficient conditions for equilibrium adjustment. This suggests that approximately 74.3% of short-term disequilibrium is corrected each period, with equilibrium restored within approximately 1.5 years. The study recommends that the government adopt policies supporting agricultural investment, control inflation by increasing production, reduce dependence on agricultural imports, enhance the skills of agricultural labor through technology training, and regulate exchange rates to mitigate economic risks in the agricultural sector, thereby ensuring food security and sustainable economic growth. | ||||
| Keywords | ||||
| Agricultural investments; ARDL model; Economic growth | ||||
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