Regime Shift Detection in pollutant emissions time series over North Africa | ||||
| Al-Azhar Bulletin of Science | ||||
| Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available Online from 14 July 2025 | ||||
| Document Type: Original Article | ||||
| DOI: 10.21608/absb.2025.441606 | ||||
 View on SCiNiTO | ||||
| Authors | ||||
Eman Rajab Ibrahim1; Amgad Saber Mahmoud  2; Mohamed Mohamed Eid2
| ||||
| 1MSc. Student, Natural Resources Department, Institute of African and Nile Basin States, Researches & Studies, Aswan University, (Natural Resources), Egypt. | ||||
| 2Astronomy and Meteorology Department, Faculty of science (Boys), Al-Azhar University, Cairo, P.O. Box 11884, Egypt. | ||||
| Abstract | ||||
| In this work, Regime Shift detection for the major reactive gases and carbon aerosols emissions over North Africa using the MACCity dataset emission inventory for the period from 1960 to 2020 was conducted. The Regime Shift detection of the following compounds: CO (carbon monoxide), NOX (nitrogen oxides), SO2 (sulfur dioxide), NMVOCs n (on-methane volatile organic compounds), BC (black carbon), and OC (organic carbon) have been examined. We select six stations according to the distribution of emissions. In Egypt, we selected two stations (Cairo and Alexandria), and one station each from Libya (Tripoli), Tunisia (Tunis), Algeria (Arzew), and Morocco (Tangier). The highest values of Regime-Shift-Index (RSI) were found around the beginning of the decades 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2010, with the maximum value in 1981. Also, the count of RSI (CRSI) has large values at the beginning of the same decades, with the maximum values in years 1981 and 2015. The positive trend of both Summation of RSI and CRSI indicates their increase over the years. That CO and NMVOCs have the highest MMR (percentage between the average and maximum) values in Arzew and Tangier stations, respectively, which exceeds 70%. Also, CO, NOX and SO2 have high MMR values in the stations of Tripoli, Tunis, Arzew and Tangier, ranging between 46.5 and 73%, while NMVOCs and BC have high MMR values in the stations of Tunis, Arzew and Tangier, which range between 41 and 70.6%. | ||||
| Keywords | ||||
| Long-term trend; NMVOCs emissions; North Africa pollution; Reactive gases emissions; Regime-Shift-index (RSI) | ||||
|
Statistics Article View: 90 |
||||
