Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on the Nutritional Composition of Macrobrachium equidens from Calabar River, Nigeria | ||||
| Egyptian Journal of Aquatic Biology and Fisheries | ||||
| Article 65, Volume 29, Issue 4, July and August 2025, Page 11391-1161 PDF (366.09 K) | ||||
| DOI: 10.21608/ejabf.2025.442762 | ||||
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| Author | ||||
| Opeh et al. | ||||
| Abstract | ||||
| Freshwater prawns like Macrobrachium equidens are important sources of nutrition and livelihood for communities in Cross River State, Nigeria. However, climate change is increasingly threatening freshwater ecosystems, potentially altering the nutritional quality of these species and thereby impacting food security and biodiversity. This study aimed to develop an integrated modeling framework to predict how climate change scenarios would affect the nutritional composition of M. equidens and to provide insights for conservation and fisheries management. Nutritional data covering proximate composition, minerals, vitamins, and fatty acids were collected monthly throughout 2023 from prawns in the Calabar River. Regional climate projections under moderate and high emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were downscaled and used as inputs for hydrological simulations with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to estimate changes in river flow, temperature, and water quality. These environmental outputs informed ecophysiological and machine learning models that predicted changes in prawn nutritional composition. The models showed strong predictive accuracy, with R² values up to 0.90. Results revealed seasonal variations in moisture (75.5–77.8%), protein (15.8–16.9%), fat (2.4–3.0%), and carbohydrates (1.8–2.6%), with minerals and vitamins generally stable but fatty acids peaking during the dry season. Under future climate scenarios, crude protein content is projected to decline by up to 1.8%, omega-3 fatty acids by 0.6 g/100g, and vitamin A by approximately 150 µg/100g by the late 21st century under RCP8.5. Temperature and river flow emerged as the main drivers of these nutritional changes. These findings highlight the significant threat climate change poses to the nutritional quality of M. equidens, with implications for population resilience, ecosystem health, and human nutrition. The study recommends adaptive fisheries management strategies, including habitat protection, monitoring, and climate-resilient aquaculture, to sustain the nutritional benefits of M. equidens in a changing climate. | ||||
| Keywords | ||||
| Macrobrachium equidens; Nutritional composition; Climate change; Freshwater fisheries; Food security | ||||
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