An Analytical Study of Climate Change and Its Impact on The Production of The Most Important Agricultural Crops in Egypt | ||||
| Alexandria Science Exchange Journal | ||||
| Article 9, Volume 46, Issue 3, September 2025, Page 449-466 PDF (557.55 K) | ||||
| Document Type: Original Article | ||||
| DOI: 10.21608/asejaiqjsae.2025.447337 | ||||
 View on SCiNiTO | ||||
| Authors | ||||
Mohamed El- Mahi* 1; Ali A. Ali* 2; Mohamed Khroub  3; Yasmeen Abdelrazek 1; Neama Mostafa abd elwahab Hassan 4
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| 1Department of Agricultural Economics and Business Administration, Faculty of Agriculture, Alexandria University | ||||
| 2Economic Affairs Sector - Ministry of Agriculture - Cairo. | ||||
| 3Faculty of Agriculture , Alexandria University | ||||
| 4Agricultural Research Center, Faculty of agriculture,،Alexanderia , Alexanderia, Egypt University | ||||
| Abstract | ||||
| The research problem was represented by the impact of climate change on agricultural production activities, as it is expected that the severity of climate fluctuations will increase, which will negatively impact the decline in agricultural production, the failure to meet basic food needs, the decline in the contribution of the agricultural sector to providing raw materials and production requirements for other economic sectors. As a result, the food gap will widen, increasing reliance on imports, which negatively affects the trade balance and foreign currency reserves—especially amid rising global food prices and ongoing economic instability, in addition to the increased water consumption resulting from these fluctuations in light of the Renaissance Dam crisis and Egypt's dependence on the waters of the Nile River. The study concluded that the minimum temperature and humidity are expected to increase by approximately 0.55°C (1.7%) in 2028 compared to 2023, which will negatively impact the productivity indicators of both wheat and maize. Rice productivity per acre is expected to decrease from 3.7 tons in 2023 to approximately 3.84 tons in 2028, and wheat productivity per acre is expected to decrease from 2.86 tons in 2023 to approximately 2.77 tons in2028. Meanwhile, maize productivity per acre is expected to remain stable at approximately 3.25 tons in 2020. Water requirements per acre for both wheat and maize are expected to increase by 14% and 0.03%, respectively, as a result of the aforementioned climate changes. While the water requirement per acre of rice is expected to decrease from 6,004 m3 in 2023 to about 5,920 m3 in 2028, although this change is statistically insignificant. It was also found that there is a statistically significant direct correlation between rice area and its production, whereby increasing the cultivated area by 10% leads to an increase in rice production by about 1.4% and vice versa. A statistically significant Inverse correlation was also found between the area of maize, average temperature and rice production, whereby increasing the area of maize by 10% leads to a decrease in rice production by about 6.2% and vice versa. A 10% increase in average temperature leads to a decrease in rice production by 6.6% during the study period. A statistically significant direct correlation was found between the area of maize, the price per ton of maize, and the production of maize, whereby a 10% increase in the cultivated area leads to an increase in maize production by about 10.1% and vice versa. A 10% increase in the price per ton of rice leads to an increase in production by about 0.3% and vice versa. A statistically significant Inverse correlation was also found between the average temperature, whereby a 10% increase in average temperature leads to a decrease in maize production by 3.6% during the study period. A statistically significant direct correlation was found between the area of wheat, and the production of wheat, whereby a 10% increase in the cultivated area leads to an increase in wheat production by about 10.6% and vice versa. A statistically significant Inverse correlation was also found between the area of sustainable alfalfa, average temperature and wheat production, whereby increasing the area of sustainable alfalfa by 10% leads to a decrease in wheat production by about 2%. A 10% increase in average temperature leads to a decrease in wheat production by 5.2% during the study period. Based on the above, the study recommends expanding wheat and maize cultivation in new lands, reducing rice acreage and replacing a portion of it with maize, developing high-yielding, climate-resistant, early-maturing, and low-water-consuming wheat and maize varieties to maximize productivity per unit of land and water, rationalizing consumption and reducing bread waste, and reducing losses during transportation and storage of both crops. | ||||
| Keywords | ||||
| Climate change; exponential softening; food security; strategic crops | ||||
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