The Impact of Exchange Rate Liberalization on The Economics of Strawberry Crop Production in Egypt "أثر تحرير سعر الصرف على اقتصاديات إنتاج محصول الفراولة في مصر" | ||
| Alexandria Journal of Agricultural Sciences | ||
| Articles in Press, Corrected Proof, Available Online from 21 August 2025 PDF (8.94 M) | ||
| Document Type: Original Article | ||
| DOI: 10.21608/alexja.2025.413842.1163 | ||
| Author | ||
| Reham A.G.M. Mahmoud* | ||
| Agric. Econ. Res. Inst., Agric. Res. Cent., Egypt | ||
| Abstract | ||
| Strawberry crops are among the most economically significant crops in Egypt, thanks to their productive, marketing, and export advantages that contribute meaningfully to the agricultural economy. This research gains importance in its quantitative assessment of Egypt’s strawberry market performance, particularly after the structural shifts in the macroeconomic landscape—most notably the Egyptian pound’s flotation decision in November 2016. The study aims to analyze the impact of exchange rate liberalization on Egypt’s strawberry market by applying a partial equilibrium model for the period 2010–2023. It explores the changes in economic efficiency indicators, welfare measures, and government revenue metrics before and after the flotation (2010–2016 vs. 2017–2023. Using official and international datasets, the study employs both descriptive and quantitative analysis. Elasticities of supply and demand were estimated through logarithmic regression. Seven core equations were formulated within the partial equilibrium framework to measure: net economic losses in production and consumption, producer and consumer surplus, government revenue changes, balance of payments adjustments, and net social welfare. Results reveal that the flotation decision negatively impacted efficiency and welfare: - Net economic loss in consumption jumped from EGP 22.61 billion pre-flotation to EGP 156.25 billion post-flotation. - Consumer surplus deteriorated sharply from –EGP 19.37 billion to –EGP 142.15 billion, indicating rising market burdens. - On the export front, Egypt’s strawberry export volume showed no significant growth, although its export value rose markedly, suggesting quality and branding improvements. Still, Egypt holds a moderate position globally, representing around 4% of export volume and 3.2% of export value. The research recommends restructuring agricultural and monetary policies to restore balance between economic efficiency and distribution equity. Proposed actions include: - Gradual domestic price realignment to close the gap with border prices - Direct support for local producers via affordable financing and technical training - Investment incentives in high-export potential governorates - Targeted support for agricultural input importers or adoption of financial hedging tools - Nutrition support programs for low-income consumers to enhance purchasing power These measures aim to build a sustainable, equitable strawberry market that benefits producers, consumers, and the state alike. | ||
| Keywords | ||
| Exchange rate liberalization; Partial equilibrium model; Nominal protection indicators; Economic efficiency; Price elasticity; Social welfare; State returns; Economics of strawberry production | ||
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