An Economic Study of the Competitive Position of Egyptian Frozen Strawberries in its Main Global Markets Using the Gravity Model | ||||
| Alexandria Science Exchange Journal | ||||
| Article 15, Volume 46, Issue 3, September 2025, Page 467-481 PDF (604.21 K) | ||||
| Document Type: Original Article | ||||
| DOI: 10.21608/asejaiqjsae.2025.449789 | ||||
 View on SCiNiTO | ||||
| Authors | ||||
Rehab Said Ibrahim Ahmed* 1; Ibrahim Ali Mohamed  2
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| 1Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Ain Shams University | ||||
| 2Department of Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Ain Shams University | ||||
| Abstract | ||||
| Frozen strawberries are considered one of the promising non-traditional horticultural crops with increasing export importance in Egypt, where export quantities reached about 330.18 thousand tons, valued at approximately USD 391.63 million in 2024. Although Egypt ranked first globally in exporting frozen strawberries during the period (2020–2024), the average export quantity does not exceed 11% of the average domestic production, despite the doubling of Egyptian strawberry production. This situation calls for an analysis of Egypt’s frozen strawberry exports to its main importing markets, and an assessment of the competitiveness level of Egyptian frozen strawberries in these markets, with the aim of enhancing the export share and maximizing the benefits from available production capacities. The study showed that the main importing countries of Egyptian frozen strawberries during the period (2020–2024) were (China, Germany, the United States, Russia, Poland, the Netherlands, Brazil, France, Saudi Arabia, and Belgium), which together represent about 60% of Egypt’s total frozen strawberry exports to the world’s markets. The analysis of external demand determinants for Egyptian frozen strawberries using the gravity model in the main importing markets revealed that the most influential factors on Egypt’s frozen strawberry export quantities are: Egypt’s gross domestic product, the distance between Egypt and the importing countries, and the common language. The results of forecasting, based on the explanatory variables in the third specification of the gravity model, indicated that Egyptian frozen strawberry exports are expected to increase to about 467.32 thousand tons in 2030, at a growth rate of approximately 32.4% compared to 2025, with an average of about 410.18 thousand tons during the period (2025–2030). The forecast of Egyptian frozen strawberry export quantities up to 2030 using the gravity model was found to be the most consistent with economic logic and closest to practical reality. Therefore, the study recommends improving competitiveness by reducing production costs, thereby lowering Egypt’s export prices in global markets, and targeting new promising markets that align with the gravity model results in terms of distance, economic size, and expected demand. | ||||
| Keywords | ||||
| Competitiveness indicators; geographical distribution; Egyptian frozen strawberries; gravity model | ||||
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