Dynamics of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Spread in a Bovine Population with Vaccination | ||
| Electronic Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications | ||
| Article 15, Volume 13, Issue 2, 2025, Pages 1-14 PDF (565.38 K) | ||
| Document Type: Regular research papers | ||
| DOI: 10.21608/ejmaa.2025.351532.1307 | ||
| Authors | ||
| Hippolyte Djimramadji1; Annour Saad Abdramane* 2; Mahamat Saleh Daoussa Haggar3 | ||
| 1Laboratory of Mathematical Modeling, Computer Science, Applications, and Simulations(L2MIAS),University of NDjamena | ||
| 2Université de Ndjamena | ||
| 3University of NDjamena | ||
| Abstract | ||
| In this article, we developed a deterministic model describing the dynamics of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) transmission within a cattle population, incorporating a culling policy for infected animals. This model includes the calculation of the basic reproduction number, $\mathcal{R}_0$, which is a key indicator of the disease's potential to spread. We ensured the positivity of the variables studied and demonstrated that the epidemic can be effectively controlled when $\mathcal{R}_0 < 1$. Through a sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number, $\mathcal{R}_0$, and numerical simulations, we identified vaccination as the most effective strategy for controlling and ultimately eradicating the disease. Parameter estimation allowed us to evaluate strategies aimed at minimizing secondary infections and to better understand the dynamics of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) under different intervention scenarios. The theoretical results, supported by numerical simulations, highlight the importance of effective vaccination programs. In particular, the ability of the vaccine to induce strong immunity in cattle significantly reduces secondary infections, thereby contributing to epidemic control. | ||
| Keywords | ||
| Mathematical modeling; foot-and-mouth disease; reproduction number; sensitivity; numerical simulation | ||
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