The impact of global supply chain disruptions on Egypt’s inflation: An empirical analysis | ||
| بحوث اقتصادية عربية | ||
| Volume 34, Issue 2, September 2025, Pages 1-36 PDF (6.61 M) | ||
| Document Type: المقالة الأصلية | ||
| DOI: 10.21608/asfer.2025.331016.1031 | ||
| Author | ||
| heba allah soliman* | ||
| sinai university | ||
| Abstract | ||
| Global supply chain disruptions due to COVID-19 and the Russian-Ukraine war have increased inflation worldwide in recent years. So, this study aims to examine the effects of these disruptions on inflation in Egypt, utilizing the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model, with disaggregated monthly data from January 2014 to May 2024. through comparing the response of domestic inflation measures like the consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) to supply chain disruption measures by using global prices of oil, food, and shipping costs. In addition to using the real exchange rate (RER). The results indicate that according to structural impulse response functions (IRFs), the global oil price shock and RER immediately positively impact Egypt's CPI and PPI. While shipping costs have an immediate positive impact on PPI and a negative impact on CPI. According to structural variance decomposition, oil prices and shipping costs have tended to significantly affect the PPI more significantly than the CPI. While RER and food have tended to have a more significant effect on the CPI than the PPI. The study's findings could spur policymakers to lessen the inflationary effect of high oil prices by switching to other renewable energy sources and adopting energy-efficient and fuel-efficient technologies. Diversify import sources from geographically close regions to mitigate the effects of inflation resulting from shipping costs. Moreover, it should also enhance all social protection systems for vulnerable categories, maintain currency stability, and enhance export competitiveness. | ||
| Keywords | ||
| Supply chain disruptions; Egypt; SVAR model; inflation | ||
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