From Policy Reforms to Pandemic Recovery: Quantile Analysis of Economic Growth Determinants in Egypt | ||
| بحوث اقتصادية عربية | ||
| Volume 34, Issue 2, September 2025, Pages 55-85 PDF (6.8 M) | ||
| Document Type: المقالة الأصلية | ||
| DOI: 10.21608/asfer.2025.346082.1038 | ||
| Author | ||
| rasha Qutb* | ||
| Damanhour University | ||
| Abstract | ||
| This study examines the asymmetric distributional impact of key determinants on Egypt’s economic growth from 1977 to 2023, focusing on total factor productivity (TFP), human capital, financial development, savings, governance, foreign direct investment (FDI), and inflation. Uniquely employing the quantile autoregressive distributed lag-error correction model (QARDL-ECM), the study captures heterogeneous effects across low, median and high growth phases, challenging traditional linear frameworks and providing deeper insights into growth dynamics. The analysis employs a comprehensive dataset and robust econometric techniques, including Huber-White robust standard errors, to ensure reliable results. Findings reveal that TFP drives growth during downturns but loses relevance in prosperous phases due to structural bottlenecks, while human capital consistently supports growth across all economic conditions. Savings hinder growth in downturns and median phases due to inefficient financial intermediation, while financial development is associated with slower long-run growth, driven by credit misallocation and systemic inefficiencies. FDI shows negligible effects due to structural and institutional barriers, and governance reforms exhibit nonlinear impacts, initially disrupting growth but potentially supporting it in high-growth phases. Inflation has a negligible long-run impact, except for a slight positive effect during high-growth phases. The study underscores the need for phase-specific interventions, including structural reforms, improved financial intermediation, and sustained governance enhancements. Policy recommendations prioritize TFP improvements and human capital investments during downturns, redirecting credit flows toward productive sectors, and targeting high-spillover FDI in renewable energy and technology. These measures aim to harmonize short-term stabilization with long-term structural transformation, addressing Egypt’s growth asymmetries and unlocking its economic potential. | ||
| Keywords | ||
| Economic Growth; QARDL-ECM; Asymmetric Effects; Phase-Specific Interventions | ||
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