Forecasting the peak of the present solar activity cycle 24 | ||
| NRIAG Journal of Astronomy and Geophysics | ||
| Volume 7, Issue 1, June 2018, Pages 15-19 PDF (285.32 K) | ||
| DOI: 10.1016/j.nrjag.2018.02.002 | ||
| Authors | ||
| R.H. Hamid; B.A. Marzouk | ||
| Abstract | ||
| Solar forecasting of the level of sun Activity is very important subject for all space programs. Most predictions are based on the physical conditions prevailing at or before the solar cycle minimum preceding the maximum in question. Our aim is to predict the maximum peak of cycle 24 using precursor techniques in particular those using spotless event, geomagnetic aa index and solar flux F10.7. Also prediction of exact date of the maximum (T) is taken in consideration. A study of variation over previous spotless event for cycles 7–23 and that for even cycles (8–22) are carried out for the prediction. Linear correlation between maximum of solar cycles (R) and spotless event around the preceding minimum gives R = 88.4 with rise time T = 4.6 years. For the even cycles R = 77.9 with rise time T = 4.5 y’s. Based on the average aa index for cycles (12–23), we estimate the expected amplitude for cycle 24 to be R = 99.4 and 98.1 with time rise of T = 4.04 & 4.3 years for both the total and even cycles in consecutive. The application of the data of solar flux F10.7 which cover only cycles (19–23) was taken in consideration and gives predicted maximum amplitude R = 126 with rise time T = 3.7 years, which are over estimation. Our result indicating to somewhat weaker of cycle 24 as compared to cycles 21–23. | ||
| Keywords | ||
| Solar activity cycle; Spotless events; Solar flux F10.7; Geomagnetic index aa | ||
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