Statistical method to predict the sunspots number | ||
| NRIAG Journal of Astronomy and Geophysics | ||
| Volume 7, Issue 2, December 2018, Pages 175-179 PDF (1.09 M) | ||
| DOI: 10.1016/j.nrjag.2018.08.001 | ||
| Authors | ||
| H.I. Abdel-Rahman; B.A. Marzouk | ||
| Abstract | ||
| Sunspots are dark regions, it is appearing in the deepest layer of solar atmosphere “photosphere”, and the average number of sunspots has cycle every 11year approximately. Sunspots cycles were numbered with solar cycle 1 beginning in 1755 and the most recent solar cycle, is cycle 24, began in December, 2008. Many authors used different techniques and precursor methods to forecast solar sunspots cycles. In this work we applied a new statistical method “autoregressive integrated moving average Models (ARIMA)” on sunspots number data observed by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) during the period 1991 – 2017 (27years), we predict the sunspot number for the ending of second brunch of current solar sunspots cycle 24. Our prediction of sunspot numbers was compared with the international sunspot number predicted by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Our predictions of monthly mean sunspot numbers along ending years of present solar cycle 24 are in a good agreement with international sunspots number predictions published by NOAA. | ||
| Keywords | ||
| Statistics; time series analysis; Sun: sunspots number forecasting | ||
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