Impact of Water-Reduction Scenarios on Crop-Productivity, Soil Salinity, and Unofficial Water Reuse in Eastern-Nile Delta. | ||
| Engineering Research Journal (Shoubra) | ||
| Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available Online from 29 September 2025 | ||
| Document Type: Research articles | ||
| DOI: 10.21608/erjsh.2025.417874.1454 | ||
| Authors | ||
| mohamed Abdul-Muttalib1; Ayman elsaadi2; Mahmoud Ali Refaey Eltoukhy1; Hossam Elgzzar* 3 | ||
| 1Civil Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering at Shoubra, Benha University, Cairo, Egypt. | ||
| 2Research Plan Affairs, National Water Research Centre, Egypt. | ||
| 3Drainage Research Institute, National Water Research Centre, Egypt. | ||
| Abstract | ||
| Water scarcity, driven by population growth, overuse, pollution, and climate change, threatens agriculture in Egypt due to limited Nile water allocations. This study examines the effects of water shortages on crop productivity, soil salinity, and unofficial water reuse in Eastern Nile Delta governorates using the SIWARE model under 0%–50% water reduction scenarios. Data sources include agriculture, irrigation, meteorology, drainage reuse, and groundwater from relevant ministries and institutes. The model was calibrated based on data from the year 2020. The results reveal that the crop productivity remained stable under moderate water reductions (10%–15%) but declined sharply under a 50% reduction. On average, 85% of cultivated areas in North Sinai, Port Said, and Damietta were classified within the critical range of average relative evapotranspiration (25%–50%), while Sharkia and Qalyubiyya had 30% of their cultivated areas falling within this specified range. However, none of the governorates reached the lowest productivity threshold (0%–25%). Soil salinity remained stable under reductions of up to 25% but increased significantly under a 50% reduction. Port Said and Ismailia saw their moderately saline areas increase from an average of 31% to 55%, while Suez, Damietta, and Qalyubiyya showed newly emerging salinity concerns. Unofficial water reuse declined in most governorates, with Sharkia and Dakahlia recording an average decrease of 31%, whereas Port Said and North Sinai exhibited a 13% rise. These findings emphasize the need for region-specific water management strategies to sustain agricultural productivity, mitigate salinity risks, and optimize water use under growing water scarcity challenges | ||
| Keywords | ||
| Eastern Nile Delta; SIWARE model; soil salinity; crop productivity; unofficial water reuse | ||
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