Novel versus traditional scores for prediction of in-hospital mortality in a cohort of Egyptian patients with liver cirrhosis and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis. A prospective single center study | ||
| Microbes and Infectious Diseases | ||
| Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available Online from 07 October 2025 | ||
| Document Type: Original Article | ||
| DOI: 10.21608/mid.2025.420867.3182 | ||
| Authors | ||
| Nehad Ibrahim Hawash1; Madonna magdy Fahmy1; Aya mohamed rabie AbdElghany2; Kariman Helmy Elkasrawy* 1 | ||
| 1Department of Tropical Medicine and Infectious Diseases, faculty of medicine, Tanta University, Tanta, Egypt | ||
| 2Public Health and Community Medicine Department, Faculty of Medicine, Tanta University, Tanta, Egypt | ||
| Abstract | ||
| Background: Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) in patients with liver cirrhosis makes them more susceptible to sepsis with increased mortality rate. Different scores had been proposed for mortality prediction. Aim: Evaluation of usefulness of different scoring systems for the prediction of in-hospital mortality in cirrhotic patients with SBP. Methods: In this prospective cohort study 102 cirrhotic patients with or without SBP admitted in Tropical medicine and infectious diseases department were enrolled. Acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II), Chronic liver failure -sequential organ failure assessment (CLIF-SOFA), model for end stage liver disease ± serum sodium (MELD, MELD-Na) and Child-Turcotte Pugh (CTP) scores were estimated for all patients throughout the first 24 hours and 48 hours later among SBP patients. Results: CTP, MELD, and MELD-Na scores showed significant elevation in patients' group with SBP (P= 0.019, 0.016, 0.008 respectively). While APACHE II and CLIF-SOFA scores were significantly elevated in deceased SBP patients (P<0.001).While ROC curve analysis revealed that the score with the uppermost sensitivity and specificity was APACHE II with cutoff value >11.5 (sensitivity 94.1%, and specificity 85.3%), followed by CLIF-SOFA which showed similar accuracy of 88.2% but with less sensitivity 76.5% and higher specificity 94.1% for the prediction of in-hospital mortality in SBP patients. Conclusion: APACHE II and CLIF-SOFA had superiority to forecast mortality in cirrhotic patients with SBP admitted in hospital than CTP and MELD scores. | ||
| Keywords | ||
| CTP; MELD-Na; APACHE II; CLIF- SOFA | ||
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