The Impact of Currency Devaluation on the Economic Structure: The Experience of Egypt (1990-2023) | ||
| مجلة الدراسات التجارية المعاصرة | ||
| Volume 11, Issue 22, October 2025, Pages 561-597 PDF (1.88 M) | ||
| Document Type: المقالة الأصلية | ||
| DOI: 10.21608/csj.2025.420669.1660 | ||
| Author | ||
| ضياء فتحي العدل* | ||
| المعهد العالى للعلوم الإدارية بالمنزلة | ||
| Abstract | ||
| This research aims to evaluate the impact of currency devaluation on the Egyptian economic structure during the period (1990-2023), using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) methodology to test the relationships in the long and short run, and estimating the Error Correction Model (ECM). The results revealed the existence of a statistically significant direct relationship in both the short and long term between the value of the local currency and the share of agriculture in GDP. There was also a statistically significant direct relationship between the value of the local currency and the share of manufacturing in GDP in the short term, while there was no statistically significant relationship between the two variables in the long term. The results also showed a statistically significant inverse relationship between the value of the local currency and the share of services in GDP in both the short and long term. The structural change accompanying the devaluation policy was an increase in the share of services at the expense of agriculture and manufacturing. This may be primarily due to the heavy reliance on imported inputs in agriculture and manufacturing compared to services, which led to increased production costs, decreased profitability in these sectors, and a shift in resources to services, particularly information and communications, financial investment, and real estate. | ||
| Keywords | ||
| Currency devaluation; economic structure; premature deindustrialization; industrial policy; ARDL methodology | ||
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