Econometric analysis of agricultural investment determinants in Egypt and the gap between actual and desired levels | ||
| Journal of Sustainable Agricultural Sciences | ||
| Volume 51, Issue 3, September 2025 | ||
| Document Type: Original Article | ||
| DOI: 10.21608/jsas.2025.416208.1540 | ||
| Authors | ||
| Mohamed Fawzy Elsafty1; Ashraf El-fitiani2; Rania Mostafa El-rewiney* 3 | ||
| 1Department of Agricultural Economics Fac. of Agriculture , Kafr El-Sheikh Uni. | ||
| 2Agricultural Economics Research Institute, Agricultural Research Center | ||
| 3Agriculture Economy | ||
| Abstract | ||
| the study addresses the low share of the agricultural sector in national investments, where agricultural investment in 2022 reached 54.16 billion EGP, representing only 4.55% of total national investments (1,189.99 billion EGP). Despite this, agricultural investments in Egypt during 2010/2011–2022/2023 showed an upward trend, increasing at current prices from 5.37 to 58.7 billion EGP with an annual growth rate of 21.1%, while real growth was slower at 9.9% due to inflation. Public investments represented 49.9% of the total, growing by 26.6% at current and 15.4% at constant prices, while private investments accounted for 45.2%, with growth rates of 14.5% at current and only 3.3% at constant prices. Econometric results highlighted agricultural savings as the most influential determinant, where a 10% increase in savings raises public investment by 72.6% and private by 39.7%. Government agricultural expenditures also had a positive impact (18.04% on public and 11.06% on total investments), while agricultural exports supported public and total investments but negatively affected private (–0.125 billion EGP). Cultivated area and agricultural loans positively influenced total investment, although loans negatively affected private (–0.607 billion EGP). A gap was also found between actual and desired investments, estimated at 31.6% for total, 31.7% for public, and 17.4% for private, indicating a shortfall in achieving targeted investment levels in the agricultural sector. | ||
| Keywords | ||
| Investment; Agricultural investments; Total investments; Private sector; Public sector; Nerlove model; Current prices | ||
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