العلاقة بين سعر الصرف والمؤشرات العامة للنمو الاقتصادي الزراعي المصري | ||
| Al-Azhar Journal of Agricultural Research | ||
| Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available Online from 31 October 2025 | ||
| Document Type: Original Article | ||
| DOI: 10.21608/ajar.2025.394661.1432 | ||
| Authors | ||
| Hayam Sayed Younes* 1; Adel محمد Mostafa2; Aseem كُرَيِّم Abdelhamid3 | ||
| 1Agricultural Faculty; Al-Azhar university | ||
| 2Faculty of Agricultural ; Al-Azhar University | ||
| 3Economic Department, Faculty of Agriculture, Al-Azhar University, Cairo, Egypt | ||
| Abstract | ||
| Abstract The exchange rate affects the growth of agricultural GDP. Accordingly, the core issue of this study lies in identifying the nature of the relationship between the exchange rate and the growth rate of agricultural GDP in Egypt. Based on this, the study aimed to identify the impacts on agricultural GDP resulting from the exchange rate liberalization in both the short and long term. This was done through studying the relationship between some agricultural economic indicators and the agricultural GDP in Egypt using the ARDL model during the period (2001–2023). The research concluded several findings, the most important of which is that the economic growth indicators in agriculture, represented by agricultural GDP, include the exchange rate, the value of agricultural exports, the value of agricultural imports, and the value of agricultural investments. These indicators are stable at first differences, and there is a cointegration among the model’s variables, indicating a long-term equilibrium relationship among them. The model’s economic results showed a statistically significant negative effect of the exchange rate, agricultural imports, and agricultural investments, and a positive effect of agricultural exports and lagged agricultural investments on agricultural GDP in the short term. Meanwhile, the exchange rate and agricultural imports were found to have a statistically significant positive effect on agricultural GDP in the long term. | ||
| Keywords | ||
| سعر الصرف; الناتج المحلي الزراعي; الصادرات الزراعية; الواردات الزراعية; الاستثمار الزراعي | ||
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