Does the change of foreign trade promote Egypt's economic growth: future prospect | ||
| المجلة العلمية للدراسات والبحوث المالية والتجارية | ||
| Volume 7, Issue 1, January 2026, Pages 689-713 PDF (717.4 K) | ||
| Document Type: المقالة الأصلية | ||
| DOI: 10.21608/cfdj.2025.436019.2402 | ||
| Author | ||
| Nema Amin Alsayed Sorour* | ||
| Department of Economics and Public Finance - Faculty of Commerce - Menoufia University | ||
| Abstract | ||
| The research aims to test the long-term causal relationship between foreign trade and the real economic growth rate in Egypt during the period (1990-2022). The research problem is represented by a main question: Is there a long-term causal relationship between foreign trade and the real economic growth rate in Egypt during the period (1990-2022)? The research derives its importance from the importance of foreign trade, which is characterized by its activity that represents an extension of the activity of other sectors in the national economy, including production, consumption, goods, and services. This means that the problems of these other sectors are reflected in the foreign trade sector, which also increases the complexity of foreign trade problems. The research seeks to test the validity of the hypothesis that states: There is a long-term causal relationship between foreign trade and the real economic growth rate in Egypt during the period (1990-2022). The research followed the deductive approach, especially in the hypotheses and results stage, which is the final stage of the deductive approach after formulating the hypotheses and then attempting to prove the validity of the hypothesis, with the aim of arriving at a set of quantitatively accurate research results. The research results show the absence of a long-term causal relationship between foreign trade and real economic growth in Egypt during the period (1990-2022). This is due to the continued imbalance in the Egyptian production structure, which affected the commodity structure of exports and imports, contributed to the persistence and increase of the trade deficit, and led to a slowdown in the economic growth rate. The most important conclusion of the research is that the Egyptian economy needs to implement export-oriented industrialization policies, which encourage Egyptian industries to strive to increase their competitive advantage and raise productivity, leading to increased exports, which would stimulate further investment and, consequently, increase the economic growth rate. Thus, foreign trade plays a positive and effective role in promoting economic growth in Egypt. | ||
| Keywords | ||
| foreign trade; economic growth; trade balance | ||
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