FORECASTING WHEAT CROP PRODUCTION IN THE DESERT GOVERNORATES | ||||
| Arab Universities Journal of Agricultural Sciences | ||||
| Article 9, Volume 24, Issue 2 - Serial Number 1, September 2016, Page 387-398 PDF (633.92 K) | ||||
| Document Type: Original Article | ||||
| DOI: 10.21608/ajs.2016.14333 | ||||
 View on SCiNiTO | ||||
| Author | ||||
| Hanan W. Ghaly* | ||||
| Economic and Social Studies Division, Department of Economic Studies, Desert Research Center, Cairo, Egypt | ||||
| Abstract | ||||
| Wheat is considered one of the main grain crop that human is depend in his diet all over the world. It is a strategic crop globally and locally in Egypt. The problem of the research refers to the gap between local wheat production and consumption. This gap forced the country to import wheat and thus represent a burden on the Egyptian balance of trade. It is the objective of the present paper is therefore to investigate ways to alleviate the deficit of wheat production and gap. The study assess wheat area, production and productivity during the period 1995-2013 particularly in the desert governorates. The study estimates wheat gap during the above period by about 67.14 million ton. Safe efficiency is therefore was put as 54.1%. Losses of wheat were put as about 1017 about 14.2% in the country as a whole. The study estimates that wheat production in Matrooh and New Valley governorate is expected to be about 173.56 and 277.8 thousand ton respectively. The study suggests that measures should be taken to decrease losses of wheat during harvesting and marketing. New storage facilities should be established. The study recommends that special concern should be given to wheat cultivation in desert governorate by encouraging former to grow wheat by covering good wheat price to encourage formers | ||||
| Keywords | ||||
| Forcast; Wheat; ARIMA; Variance | ||||
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