ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF EGYPTIAN EXPORTS OF ORANGE USING GRAVITY MODEL | ||||
| Fayoum Journal of Agricultural Research and Development | ||||
| Article 22, Volume 32, Issue 2, July 2018, Page 134-151 PDF (4 MB) | ||||
| Document Type: Research articles. | ||||
| DOI: 10.21608/fjard.2018.191224 | ||||
 View on SCiNiTO | ||||
| Authors | ||||
| Amina Amin Kotop Moustafa; Mohamed Hassan Ahmed Rabie | ||||
| Abstract | ||||
| The study investigated the relative importance of Egypt's exports of orange for fruit exports, agricultural exports and total exports during the period - , Studying the development of quantity, value and export prices of Egypt's orange exports during the period - , Studying the geographical distribution of Egypt's orange exports to the most important countries during the period - ,. Estimation of the Gravity Model for Egyptian Exports of Oranges during the period - ). The research was based on the published and unpublished secondary data issued by the system The Central Administration for Public Mobilization and Statistics and the computer database of the Agency, the Central Administration of Agricultural Economy of the Ministry of Agriculture, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), foreign trade publications, and some previous studies in this field. To achieve the objectives of the research, statistical, economic and statistical analysis methods were used through Estimation of the general trend models, the most important of which is the linear pattern of the cultivated area, production, productivity, quantity, value and export prices. The economic analysis was based on some indicators, the most important being the instability coefficient, (Gini coefficient), and the gravity model was used to determine the factors affecting Egyptian exports of oranges The main findings of the research: The instability coefficients of the total export volume of orange are found to be unstable. The instability coefficient for the average period reached instability coefficients below in at a rate of about and the highest in at about Of the orange was unstable as the instability coefficient for the average period was about . The instability coefficient below was in at about and the highest in at . The instability coefficients of the total export value of orange were unstable, Uncertainty Resolution of the average period of about and reached instability coefficient below in at a rate of about and by , about rate. The results of the Gravity Model Test show that there is an inverse correlation between the quantity of orange exports and the total Egyptian GDP and the population of Egypt. This may lead to increased local demand for oranges with increased production and a positive correlation between the quantity of orange exports And each of the total national product of importing countries, and the number of population of those countries, that the more the population in the importing country increased the demand of the state on imports and thus increased the demand for Egyptian exports of potatoes, the existence of a direct relationship between the amount of orange exports and the volume of production of oranges may return that However, despite the increase in local production of oranges, the percentage of rejection of exported shipments increases every year with the strictness of the standards set for export and the spread of diseases in Egyptian oranges, especially fresh fruit fly disease, and a direct relationship between the quantity of exports of orange and export price where the increase in price to encourage Exporters found that the distance variable between Egypt and the countries importing the orange has a negative effect on Egypt's exports of oranges. In other words, the greater the distance between countries, the higher the transportation costs. The negative effect of the distance on exports shows more with the goods Quick damage | ||||
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