FORECASTING FOR THE AREA, AVERAGE YIELD AND PRODUCTION OF WHEAT CROP IN EGYPT AND BENI-SWEF GOVERNORATE USING ARIMA MODELS
Atia, A., Atwa, M. (2009). FORECASTING FOR THE AREA, AVERAGE YIELD AND PRODUCTION OF WHEAT CROP IN EGYPT AND BENI-SWEF GOVERNORATE USING ARIMA MODELS. EKB Journal Management System, 23(1), 59-75. doi: 10.21608/fjard.2009.197015
Ahmed, A. M. Atia; Mohamed, H.M., Atwa. "FORECASTING FOR THE AREA, AVERAGE YIELD AND PRODUCTION OF WHEAT CROP IN EGYPT AND BENI-SWEF GOVERNORATE USING ARIMA MODELS". EKB Journal Management System, 23, 1, 2009, 59-75. doi: 10.21608/fjard.2009.197015
Atia, A., Atwa, M. (2009). 'FORECASTING FOR THE AREA, AVERAGE YIELD AND PRODUCTION OF WHEAT CROP IN EGYPT AND BENI-SWEF GOVERNORATE USING ARIMA MODELS', EKB Journal Management System, 23(1), pp. 59-75. doi: 10.21608/fjard.2009.197015
Atia, A., Atwa, M. FORECASTING FOR THE AREA, AVERAGE YIELD AND PRODUCTION OF WHEAT CROP IN EGYPT AND BENI-SWEF GOVERNORATE USING ARIMA MODELS. EKB Journal Management System, 2009; 23(1): 59-75. doi: 10.21608/fjard.2009.197015

FORECASTING FOR THE AREA, AVERAGE YIELD AND PRODUCTION OF WHEAT CROP IN EGYPT AND BENI-SWEF GOVERNORATE USING ARIMA MODELS

Fayoum Journal of Agricultural Research and Development
Article 6, Volume 23, Issue 1, January 2009, Page 59-75  XML PDF (515.32 K)
Document Type: Research articles.
DOI: 10.21608/fjard.2009.197015
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Authors
Ahmed, A. M. Atia; Mohamed, H.M., Atwa
Institute of Economic Research, A.R.C., Giza- Egypt.
Abstract
The paper describes an empirical study of modeling and forecasting
time series data of the area, average yield and Production of wheat crop in
Egypt and Beni-Swef Governorate. The Box Jenkins ARIMA methodology
has been used for forecasting. The objective of the research is to find an
appropriate ARIMA model for forecasting for area, average yield and the
production of wheat crop. The diagnostic checking has shown that
ARIMA(0,2,1) is appropriate for the area in Egypt, random walk model for
the average yield and ARIMA(1,1,1) for the production. But, in the case of
Beni-Swef Governorate the linear trend model is the best forecast model for
the area, ARIMA(0,1,2) is the best forecast model for the average yield and
linear trend model for the production The forecasts from 2007-2008 to
2012-2013 are calculated based on the selected best model by using time
series from 1982-1983 to 2006-2007, which the values for the forecasts for
the area about 3.2182 million fedan in 2007/2008 and 3.511 million fedan in
2012/2013, the average yield 18.3404 ardab/fed in 2007/2008 and 19.9925
ardab/fed in 2012/2013 and the production 58.6243 million ardab in
2007/2008 and 68.3664 million ardab in 2012/2013 for Egypt. In the case of
Beni-Swef Governorate, the area about 142713 fedan in 2007/2008 and
161124 fedan in 2012/2013, the average yield 21.8916 ardab/fed in
2007/2008 and 23.6585 ardab/fed in 2012/2013 and the production 2.890
million ardab in 2007/2008 and 3.364 million ardab in 2012/2013. These
forecasts would be helpful for the policy makers to foresee ahead of time the
future requirements of grain storage import and/or export and adopt
appropriate measures in this regard.

Keywords
Forecasting; Wheat area; Wheat average yield; Wheat production; ARIMA models
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