Fractional order COVID 19 pandemic model in Morocco: Dynamical analysis and Numerical simulation
elsayed, A., Hanafy, I., arafa, A., gouda, M. (2022). Fractional order COVID 19 pandemic model in Morocco: Dynamical analysis and Numerical simulation. EKB Journal Management System, 3(1), 131-137. doi: 10.21608/ajbas.2021.99552.1071
ahmed mohammed elsayed; Ibrahim mohammed Hanafy; anas ahmed arafa; mohammed ibraheem gouda. "Fractional order COVID 19 pandemic model in Morocco: Dynamical analysis and Numerical simulation". EKB Journal Management System, 3, 1, 2022, 131-137. doi: 10.21608/ajbas.2021.99552.1071
elsayed, A., Hanafy, I., arafa, A., gouda, M. (2022). 'Fractional order COVID 19 pandemic model in Morocco: Dynamical analysis and Numerical simulation', EKB Journal Management System, 3(1), pp. 131-137. doi: 10.21608/ajbas.2021.99552.1071
elsayed, A., Hanafy, I., arafa, A., gouda, M. Fractional order COVID 19 pandemic model in Morocco: Dynamical analysis and Numerical simulation. EKB Journal Management System, 2022; 3(1): 131-137. doi: 10.21608/ajbas.2021.99552.1071

Fractional order COVID 19 pandemic model in Morocco: Dynamical analysis and Numerical simulation

Alfarama Journal of Basic & Applied Sciences
Article 11, Volume 3, Issue 1, January 2022, Page 131-137  XML PDF (488.77 K)
Document Type: Original Article
DOI: 10.21608/ajbas.2021.99552.1071
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Authors
ahmed mohammed elsayed1; Ibrahim mohammed Hanafy2; anas ahmed arafa3; mohammed ibraheem gouda email 4
1professor pure mathematics,Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science,Alexandria university, Alexandria, Egypt
2professor pure mathematics ,Port said University, Faculty of Science, Department of Mathematics, Egypt.
3associate Professor,Department of Mathematics, College of Sciences and Arts, Methnab, Qassim University, P.O. Box 931, Buridah, 51931, Methnab, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
4assistant lecturer ,mathematics and computer science , faculty of science , port said university
Abstract
In this paper, we introduce fractional order COVID-19 model in Morocco. We analyse model by calculating reproductive ratio R_0,finding free disease equilibrium point and studying local and global stability of free disease equilibrium point E_0.to show the advantages of fractional order model ,we simulate model by using Adams-type predictor-corrector method and compare our results to clinical data which obtained from morocco cases from 18 march 2020 to 5 April 2020 . from figures, we can easily see that data from fractional order is better than data obtained by integer order model according to the comparison with clinical data.
non-local fractional order is big advantage in disease modelling, we can choose more appropriate fractional order according to comparison with clinical data. Finally ,we want to mention that we can’t study endemic equilibrium point by local and global stability because we study the spread of disease with unstable of number of infected individuals
Keywords
COVID-19 fractional order model; Fractional Adams-type predictor-corrector method; boundedness of solution; local and global stability analysis; Numerical results
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