Evolution of Crude Oil Prices during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Application of Time Series ARIMA Forecasting Model
ATIL, A., MAHFOUD, B. (2021). Evolution of Crude Oil Prices during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Application of Time Series ARIMA Forecasting Model. EKB Journal Management System, 4(1), 1-12. doi: 10.21608/dusj.2021.205887
Assia ATIL; Bouchra MAHFOUD. "Evolution of Crude Oil Prices during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Application of Time Series ARIMA Forecasting Model". EKB Journal Management System, 4, 1, 2021, 1-12. doi: 10.21608/dusj.2021.205887
ATIL, A., MAHFOUD, B. (2021). 'Evolution of Crude Oil Prices during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Application of Time Series ARIMA Forecasting Model', EKB Journal Management System, 4(1), pp. 1-12. doi: 10.21608/dusj.2021.205887
ATIL, A., MAHFOUD, B. Evolution of Crude Oil Prices during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Application of Time Series ARIMA Forecasting Model. EKB Journal Management System, 2021; 4(1): 1-12. doi: 10.21608/dusj.2021.205887

Evolution of Crude Oil Prices during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Application of Time Series ARIMA Forecasting Model

Delta University Scientific Journal
Article 1, Volume 4, Issue 1, April 2021, Page 1-12  XML PDF (908.91 K)
Document Type: Review articles
DOI: 10.21608/dusj.2021.205887
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Authors
Assia ATIL1; Bouchra MAHFOUD2
1Department of Economics, LADBG, Université 8 Mai 1945- Guelma, Algeria
2Department of Economics, LRIEDD, Badji Mokhtar- Annaba University, Algeria
Abstract
Given the high level of uncertainty experienced by open economies in the light of Coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) and global economic recession expectations, predictive studies become extremely important, particularly when it comes to commodities with high global demand. Because crude oil is a major source of energy on which most economic and commercial activities are based, the primary aim of the study is to forecast oil prices for the within and out-of-sample period using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (ARIMA). Study results showed that the ARIMA model is delivering satisfactory results in the prediction process. Moreover, prices are expected to see a slight increase and stability over the next few months.
Keywords
COVID-19; ARIMA; Crude Oil; Forecasting and Prices
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