SOME DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS EFFECTS ON AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS RATE IN EGYPT DURING LAST FIFTY YEARS (1952-2002) | ||||
| Journal of Agricultural Economics and Social Sciences | ||||
| Article 4, Volume 30, Issue 10, October 2005, Page 6025-6046 PDF (6.09 MB) | ||||
| Document Type: Original Article | ||||
| DOI: 10.21608/jaess.2005.208486 | ||||
 View on SCiNiTO | ||||
| Author | ||||
| A. R. EI-Ghannam, | ||||
| Dept. of Rural Community Research, Agricultural Extension & Rural Development Research Institute, Agricultural Research Center, Egypt. | ||||
| Abstract | ||||
| Over the past fifty years, there have been important changes in all the fields. There are some significant improvements in the agricultural productive sector, but there was little change in the rate of agricultural exports according to these improvements. This study deals with what happened in demographical, social, economical, and agricultural fields during the last fifty years from 1952 to 2002? In addition to, the main objective of the study is to explain and explore the effect of demographic and socio-economic factors upon agricultural exports rate during the same period. A compatible equation of Alessio and Bilas (1994) and Hyman (1999) indicators of country economic has played an important theoretical role in the current study. Secondary data from different sources are used. The statistical methods used in this study are time series analysis, arithmetical means, correlation analysis, and path analysis. The results of correlation analysis indicate that birth rate, population increase rate, marriage rate, and agricultural imports rate were significant and negatively associated with agricultural exports rate. Moreover, the results showed that numbers of graduates from institutes and universities, agricultural investments rate, total agricultural wages, total numbers of agricultural employments, and the total cultivated areas of winter, summer, and horticultural crops were significant and positively related to the same variable. The results of path analysis show that the birth rate, population increase rate, and agricultural imports rate had significant and negatively direct effects on agricultural exports rate, while agricultural investments rate, total agricultural wages, and cultivated areas 01' winter, horticultural crops had significant and positively direct effects on agricultural exports rate. In addition, there was a significant and negatively indirect effect on agricultural exports rate from population increase rate. The most important recommendations are: stable birth and death rates that will be reflected on the population increase rate, increase investments in agricultural sectors, increase wages in agricultural sectors, and increase the total cultivated areas of winter, summer, river, horticultural crops by highly productive crops and new genetically modified offspring. | ||||
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