An economic study of the current and targeted situation for the production and export of garlic in Egypt | ||||
| Egyptian Journal of Agricultural Research | ||||
| Article 13, Volume 100, Issue 1, March 2022, Page 153-162 PDF (649.99 K) | ||||
| Document Type: Original Article | ||||
| DOI: 10.21608/ejar.2022.111334.1188 | ||||
 View on SCiNiTO | ||||
| Author | ||||
Eman S. El-Batran 
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| Agricultural Economics Research Institute, Agricultural Research Center, Giza, Egypt | ||||
| Abstract | ||||
| The research aims to study the current and targeted situation for the production and export of garlic in Egypt in order to achieve economic stability in the production and export of garlic. The most important results were the following: By studying the productive and economic variables of the garlic crop in Egypt, it was found that the area, production, and costs increased a statistically significant annual increase estimated at about 0.939 thousand feddans, 8.11 thousand tons, and 34.2 pounds/feddan, respectively, during the study period (2001–2019). It was found that the productivity hectares, real farm price, and net acre yield are characterised by the relative stability of the non-significance of the regression coefficient. It was found that the instability in the area planted with garlic leads to instability in its local production, as the instability coefficient in the area planted with garlic explained about 83% of the changes in the instability factor in the local production of garlic. The local production of garlic is expected to increase from about 338.13 thousand tonnes in 2021 to about 370.9 thousand tonnes in 2025, with an annual average of about 354.57 thousand tons. It was also shown that the quantity, value, and price of Egyptian garlic exports increased by a statistically significant amount, amounting to about 0.894 thousand tons, 1.41 million dollars, and 51.3 dollars/tonne for each of them, respectively. It was found that the export price of garlic is more stable than the value and quantity of exports due to the low coefficient of instability of the export price, where the geometric mean of the instability coefficients was about 25.5, 52.8, and 60.8 for each of them, respectively. It was found that the actual level of garlic exports is close to its target during the period (2015–2019), and the actual level of garlic exports represents about 88.8% of the target level. | ||||
| Keywords | ||||
| Non-Stability; Stepwise regression; Arbitrary weights method; Partial adjustment mode; Target level | ||||
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