DSSAT PROGRAM AND PREDICTION OF WHEAT PRODUCTIVITY UNDER RAINFED AND SUPPLEMENTARY IRRIGATION CONDITIONS | ||||
| Journal of Plant Production | ||||
| Article 3, Volume 29, Issue 3, March 2004, Page 1051-1064 PDF (338.56 K) | ||||
| Document Type: Original Article | ||||
| DOI: 10.21608/jpp.2004.238514 | ||||
 View on SCiNiTO | ||||
| Author | ||||
| M. Sh. Abd EL-Maaboud, | ||||
| Ecology and Dry Land Agricultural Division Desert Research Center, Cairo, Egypt | ||||
| Abstract | ||||
| Crop simulation models have improved steadily over the past three decades aided by the rapid improvement of computer technology. Some of these crop models are currently used to study the impact of climatic change on crop productivity under different environment conditions . One of these models is DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer) which used to evaluate and predict the yield of several crops (One of these crops is wheat) under various environmental conditions such as weather, soil, irrigation and fertilizers. Also select crop cultivar(s) through the simulation procedure for different environments. This could be helping the decision- makers to put the agricultural strategies with different scenarios. In this study, climate data for current conditions and for two future scenarios, in the form of monthly and daily values, were used to evaluate crop growth using DSSAT, for 2040. These same climate data were then manipulated by changing their standard deviations to produce increased or decreased climate variability scenarios. The potential impact of climatic change on wheat production was evaluated by simulation the predicted data under the current condition and the predicted data by the year 2040. Starting with the assumption of global climate change by 2040, this research concentrates on assessing haw agriculture in the North West Coasl of Egypt will adapt to such climate change. Eleven wheat varieilies were evaluated under rainfed condition at different growth stages (at Maryot Experimental Station North West Coast of Egypt) and analyzed by DSSAT model to get the predicted yield. The actual field experiments data showed that there were significantly differences between the wheat varieties in most of the morpho-physiological characteristics, yield and yield components The current results showed that the grain yield per hectare of Gemiza 7 cultivar out- weighed significantly those of the other cultivars followed by Giza 164. Whereas. Sakha 93 produced the highest value of the predicted grain yield by the year 2040 Results were evaluated across eleven different wneat varieties and climate scenarios (control or current conditions, mean changes, variance changes, mean and variance changes) While the overall mean increases by the year 2040 result in increased yields due to the positive effect of duplication in CO, and it s effect on the wheat crop as a C3 plant. The framework of this study therefore attempts to fill the gaps of knowledge and methodology between production of climate forecasts and their practical application to improve decision making by the agricultural sector | ||||
| Keywords | ||||
| Wheat. Varieties; Climate change; Ramted. DSSAT; Crop model | ||||
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