Modeling the future scenarios for surface temperature and wind regime over the South-Eastern Levantine Basin, Egypt | ||||
| Egyptian Journal of Aquatic Biology and Fisheries | ||||
| Article 30, Volume 26, Issue 3, May and June 2022, Page 541-564 PDF (1.77 MB) | ||||
| Document Type: Original Article | ||||
| DOI: 10.21608/ejabf.2022.244114 | ||||
 View on SCiNiTO | ||||
| Author | ||||
| Mohamed Elbessa et al. | ||||
| Abstract | ||||
| The understanding of long-term variabilities for surface air temperature and the wind regime is essential for the adaptation and mitigation plans over South Eastern Levantine (SEL), the current paper analyses the recent trends of Sea Surface Wind (SW), and surface air temperature (T2m) using regional climate model of RegCM-SVN from 2006 up to 2100 with 25 km2 grid resolution. RegCM-SVN was driven with ERA5 for recent simulations (2006-2020). However, the model was driven with two Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) scenarios (i.e. RCP2.6 and RCP 8.5) ) RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios of HADGEM for future simulations (2006-2100). The bias between the simulated results and ERA5 reanalysis data was used to assess the modeling results along the Mediterranean Sea. Moreover, ERA5 database was used to understand the model simulations of T2m and WS over SEL. The results proved that RegCM-SVN in the future simulation (2020-2100) for T2m, U10 and V10 using two climate change scenarios; RCP 2.6 and RCP8.5 over the SEL revealed a significant warming range from 0.3 to 3.6 °C. The RegCM-SVN and ERA5 are almost similar in both simulations for T2m and SW at both scenarios, with a strong correlation (> 0.90) over the entire oceanic area and over 0.85 (0.80) at the land area (southern part of the Gulfs of Aqaba and Suez) for both scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The validation processes indicated that RegCM-SVN successfully simulated the surface air temperature and wind regime over the study area. The simulated SW and T2m that are expected to have many socioeconomic negative impacts, especially in tourism, agriculture, water demand, and health. Coastal processes including the current system and marine biodiversity are also likely to be negatively affected by climate changes. | ||||
| Keywords | ||||
| Mediterranean Sea; air temperature; wind regime; regional climate modeling; Future scenario | ||||
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