MEAT'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND FORECAST SAMPLES IN THE ARAB WORLD | ||||
| Journal of Agricultural Economics and Social Sciences | ||||
| Article 4, Volume 28, Issue 11, November 2003, Page 6725-6737 PDF (1.56 MB) | ||||
| Document Type: Original Article | ||||
| DOI: 10.21608/jaess.2003.246289 | ||||
 View on SCiNiTO | ||||
| Authors | ||||
| A. K. Abd EI-Hamid; Abd EI- Momen | ||||
| Dept.of Agric. Fconomic, Fac. Of Agrlc. Cairo Univ | ||||
| Abstract | ||||
| Animal production sector plays an important role in the economy of many Arab countries. This importance is represented in sharing on Agricultural resultant. and additionally in raising the nutrition component for the Arab individual, the development efforts in producing the red meat sector led to the increasing development in the Arab World whole production of meat during the nineteenths of the last century. The number of the slain cows and Buffaloes has been increased from 7.9 MiJJion in 1987 to 1.12 million approximately on 2000, which represe ts 40.7 % increase while the number of the slain sheep's and goats has been increased from 58.7 million on 1987 to 83.9 million on 2000. which represents increaselof 42.9. as well poultry production has been increased form 1.3 million Ton on 1987 up to 2.4 million on 2000. that means 84.65 % increase. In the same time the Arab World production increased from 202.15 million on 1987 up to 279.9 million on 2000, that means 38.5 % increase. Which renecting on the Arab individual portion of meat in growth national product. The search problem is concentrating on the low portion of Arab individual from meat comparing with the international portion, addilionally the Arab w10rld had to import a large quantity of from European countries, which give the chance of transferring of several diseases such as Cow's Madness and also it causes CI heavy burden on import invoice. I The aim of this research is to clarify the current and future situation of meat production and consumption. the main economic aspects which have a strong affect on them. also how to avoid shortage of meat in Arab World. The red meat average in Arab World has reached to 3.02 million ton during the period 1999 - 2000, the annual increase rate of red meat production in Arab World is approximately 0.127 million ton assured statistically. As for white meat. its production rate In Arab World reached to approximately 1.8 million ton during the same period. and the rate of annual increase eached to 0.094 million ton. On studying of supply and demand samples forecast by using the available data during the period 1990·2000 supply and demand samples on 2005,2010 showed that cows and buffaloes expected production in Arab World on 200~ is 2360.5 thousand ton, but the Arab consumption from Cows and Buffaloes meat i~ the same year is 2990.7 thousand ton. So the gap will be 630.2 thousand ton with average of self'sufficiency (Autarchy) about 78.9 % While the cows and buffaloes mea! expected production on year of 2010 about 2937.5 thousand ton. while the Arab world consumption on the same year is about 3599.5 thousand ton. So the gap on the year 2010 is 662 thousand ton approxim~teIY, with average of self-sufficiency about 81.6 % which clarify an improvement in the average of self-sufficiency form cows and buffaloes meat. The cheeps and goats; meat expected product in Arab World on year 2005 will be 1766.2 thousand ton. while the expected consumption in the same year will about 2153.4 thousand ton, with average of self-sufficiency about 82%. So the gap will be about 387.2 thousand ton. The sheep and goats; meat expected production on year 2010 will be about 2181.4 thousand ton. while the expected consumption in the same year will be about 2542.2 thousand lon, which means a gap about 360.8 thousand ton with average of self-sufficiency about 85.8%, that indicates to an improvement in the average of self-sufficiency. The poultry meat expected production on year 2005 will be about 2816.8 thousand ton, while the expected consumption in the same year will be about 3138.2 thousand ton. So the gap wil! be 321.4 thousand ton of average of self-sufficiency about 89.8 'Yo. Concerning to the expected meat product on year 2010 will be about 3343.6 thousand ton, while the expected consumption on the same year about 3707.9 thousand ton, so the gap will be 364.3 thousand ton approximately, with average of self-sufficiency about 90.2%% during the same year. According to the above mentioned it is very clear that improvement in the average of self-sufficiency between the year 2005-2010, thai's because of the clear balance between the product & consumption policy; As we can see a change existed in the average of product within 2005-2010 about 18.7%; comparing with the expected consumption in the same period with average of about t 8.2%. | ||||
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