Production and Consumption of The Most Important Grain Crops in Egypt In Light of Local and International Changes | ||||
| Alexandria Science Exchange Journal | ||||
| Article 17, Volume 43, Issue 3, September 2022, Page 867-884 PDF (674.72 K) | ||||
| Document Type: Original Article | ||||
| DOI: 10.21608/asejaiqjsae.2022.251459 | ||||
 View on SCiNiTO | ||||
| Authors | ||||
Yasmen Abdelrazek   1; Maha Mohamed Aliwa 2
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| 1faculty of agriculture- alexandria university | ||||
| 2Department of Economics and Agribusiness, Faculty of Agriculture, Alexandria University | ||||
| Abstract | ||||
| Egyptian agricultural production faces many challenges, including limited land and water resources, and climate change that directly affects the production process, which makes it unable to provide food at rates commensurate with population growth rates, resulting in reduced self-sufficiency and increased dependence on imports, The research aimed to study (1) the current situation and the future forecast of climate change in Egypt, (2) the current situation and the future forecast of the production and economic indicators of wheat and maize crops in Egypt, (3) the impact of climate difference on the production and water consumption of study crops and the resulting economic losses, (4) economic and climatic factors affecting the production of study crops, and (5) alternatives proposed to address the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis on food security of wheat and maize. The research found that the greatest, low and average temperature is expected to increase by about 0.95°C, 0.9°C, 1.7 m° in 2026 compared to 2020 and the relative humidity is expected to increase by about 4.4%, and the amount of rain is expected to be about 5% lower than in 2020, This contributes to the negative impact on the production indicators of both wheat and maize, where the productivity of wheat is expected to stabilize at 2.7 tons in 2026, while the productivity of corn acres is expected to decrease to 3.22 Tons are 2.4% lower than in 2020, and the acre's water needs for wheat and maize are expected to increase by about 5%, 2.3% each, respectively. It was found that there is a statistically moral inverse relationship between average temperature and wheat production has been shown, as a 10% increase in average temperature leads to a 4.3% decrease in wheat production and vice versa, as well as a statistically moral correlation between the amount of rain, wheat cultivation and total production, as a 10% increase in total wheat production by 0.5%, 8.8% for both, respectively, It was found that there is a statistically moral inverse relationship between the area cultivated with sustainable clover as a competing crop and total wheat production, as a 10% increase in the area of clover leads to a 1.6% decrease in wheat production during the study period. It was found that there is a statistically moral inverse relationship between the average temperature and the production of maize, as the increase in the average temperature by 10% leads to a decrease in maize production by 4.9% and vice versa, as it was found that there is a statistically moral expulsion relationship between the area planted with corn and its total production, as the increase in the area planted with corn by 10% leads to an increase in total production of it by 6.5%, It shows that there is a statistically moral inverse relationship between the area planted with rice as a competing crop and total maize production, as a 10% increase in the area of rice leads to a 5.9% decrease in maize production during the study period. | ||||
| Keywords | ||||
| Grain production; Variance analysis; Weather changes; Food security; Russia-Ukraine Crisis | ||||
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