Solar activity cycles recur epidemic and pandemic viruses: Space weather’s alerts

Mawad, Ramy; Madbouly, Hanafy M.; Mahdy, Ehab M. B.

doi:10.21608/absb.2022.149409.1197

	Solar activity cycles recur epidemic and pandemic viruses: Space weather’s alerts
Al-Azhar Bulletin of Science
Article 6, Volume 33, Issue 2-B, December 2022, Page 71-83 PDF (835.81 K)
Document Type: Original Article
DOI: 10.21608/absb.2022.149409.1197
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Authors
Ramy Mawad ¹; Hanafy M. Madbouly²; Ehab M. B. Mahdy³
¹Astronomy &amp; Meteorology department, Faculty of science, Al-Azhar university, Cairo
²Faculty of Veterinary medicine, Beni Suef University
³Agricultural Research Center, National Gene Bank
Abstract
This paper studies pandemic viruses that spread during the period (1759-2020) according to solar activity cycles. Our findings and results include the following: (1) the pandemic severity level has a negative correlation with the strength of solar activity; (2) pandemic viruses are of three types according to their compatibility with solar activity association. Most of them spread through the quiet Sun, where viruses survive better in cold and rainy weather; (3) the emergence of new strains of influenza viruses was manifested in two ways. First, the annual epidemics due to antigenic drift. Second, pandemics recur at 1-12 solar cycles (~11-120 years) due to new virus subtypes resulting from virus reassortment which leads to antigenic shift; (4) pandemic viruses have two groups according to their recurring period: first, recurring in nine solar cycles; second, recurring in twelve solar cycles. Furthermore, we reassort pandemic viruses from their previous spread in the same periodic classification. Moreover, we derive a periodicity formula of each subtype of pandemic viruses as spread date.
Keywords
Climate change; Environment; Epidemiology; Solar cycle; Solar terrestrial connection; Space weather


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