An Analytical Study of The Most Important Export Seasons for The Grape Crop in Egypt | ||||
| Assiut Journal of Agricultural Sciences | ||||
| Article 14, Volume 53, Issue 4, October 2022, Page 176-183 PDF (512.19 K) | ||||
| Document Type: Original Article | ||||
| DOI: 10.21608/ajas.2022.128533.1124 | ||||
 View on SCiNiTO | ||||
| Authors | ||||
Mahmoud S.M. Khalefa; Suzan Abdalmajeed Aboelmajd  ; Salah A. Saleh; Ramy A. Abdelhafiz
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| Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Assiut University, Egypt | ||||
| Abstract | ||||
| This study aims to identify the export seasons during the period from 2015-2019, as well as to predict the quantities and prices of Egypt's exports of the grape crop so that the necessary production can be provided to meet export requirements in accordance with the expectations and forecasts of external demand for it. The study of the export seasons of the grape crop showed that the most important export periods are the period from May to August, with an average of about 183633.95 tons, which is equivalent to about 98.09% of the average of the total study period. The amount is about 187,193.49 tons. The study showed that most of the months in which the external demand for grapes increases, represents the months of export with high prices, which means an increase in the export revenue. It was also shown from the results of the seasonal forecast using the general trend for the months of the period from 2015-2019, that the total quantity expected to be exported from grapes will increase by an estimated rate of 45.88%, 54.89%, 63.90% for the years 2022, 2023, 2024, respectively, compared to the average of the aforementioned period. It was also noted that the demand for grapes will increase during the period (May-August) at an estimated rate of about 97.54% of the total estimated quantity for the period from 2022-2024, while the estimated prices increased by rates representing about 67.28%, 80.81%, 94.34% in the years 2022, 2023 and 2024, respectively, compared to the average for the period from 2015-2019. It was found that export prices approach each other in similar proportions during the year, but the months of May, January, December, June, April and March are the highest in prices. | ||||
| Keywords | ||||
| Analytical study; Export seasons; Grape; Seasonal forecast | ||||
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