Predicting the exchange rate of the Egyptian pound using neural networks
El-Mahdy, A., Saker, O., Salah El-Shafei, A. (2022). Predicting the exchange rate of the Egyptian pound using neural networks. EKB Journal Management System, 36(4), 125-151.
Adel El-Mahdy; Omar Saker; Ahmed Salah El-Shafei. "Predicting the exchange rate of the Egyptian pound using neural networks". EKB Journal Management System, 36, 4, 2022, 125-151.
El-Mahdy, A., Saker, O., Salah El-Shafei, A. (2022). 'Predicting the exchange rate of the Egyptian pound using neural networks', EKB Journal Management System, 36(4), pp. 125-151.
El-Mahdy, A., Saker, O., Salah El-Shafei, A. Predicting the exchange rate of the Egyptian pound using neural networks. EKB Journal Management System, 2022; 36(4): 125-151.

Predicting the exchange rate of the Egyptian pound using neural networks

المجلة العلمية للبحوث والدراسات التجارية
Volume 36, Issue 4, December 2022, Page 125-151  XML PDF (420.31 K)
Document Type: المقالة الأصلية
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Authors
Adel El-Mahdy* 1; Omar Saker* 1; Ahmed Salah El-Shafei* 2
1Professor of economics, Helwan university
2lecture of economics, higher institute of public administration and foreign trade
Abstract
The analysis of the volatility in the exchange rate has long been a vital challenges and important topic in international finance. Because it is influenced by many factors and forces, while linear models are not able to capture nonlinear
techniques and methods have been evolved in the last few decades for exchange rate prediction to overcome the limitations of the linear methods as well as the development of artificial intelligence, which has led to the development of alternative solutions utilizing non-linear modelling.
This paper aims to use Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to predict the value of the Egyptian pound in terms of US dollars, by depending on fundamental economic variables. The study concluded that the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is 2.8%. This result indicates that neural networks is accurate by 97.2% in forecasting exchange rate depends on the macroeconomic variables.
 
Keywords
Exchange Rate; Forecasting; Egyptian pound; Artificial Neural Networks
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