Using The Activity-Based Models to Study the Effect of Increasing Fuel Prices on the Individuals’ Daily Movement Patterns | ||||
| Engineering Research Journal (Shoubra) | ||||
| Volume 52, Issue 2, April 2023, Page 64-71 PDF (1.02 MB) | ||||
| Document Type: Research articles | ||||
| DOI: 10.21608/erjsh.2023.184870.1124 | ||||
 View on SCiNiTO | ||||
| Authors | ||||
Ibrahim mohamed Ramadan1; hesham zenhom omar  1; Ahmed El-Sayed Hassan2; heba mahmoud bakry1
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| 1Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering at Shoubra, Benha University | ||||
| 2Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering Cairo University | ||||
| Abstract | ||||
| The present study Provides a tool to overcome the problem of the lack of accurate models to study many policies affecting the transport system in Egypt, especially the policies of raising fuel prices and their impact on the daily movement patterns of individuals. It also aims to create a model to study the policies of raising fuel prices using activity-based transport demand models because they are the most accurate and realistic methods of modeling transport demand. Egyptian Obour City was chosen as the study area. A total of 934 representative samples of individuals within the study area were collected through questionnaires containing questions specific to the characteristics of households, characteristics of individuals and characteristics of daily tours of individuals. The SPSS program was used to build five models of movement patterns within the study area, where it was found that these models are the most widespread within the study area. The study showed that the cost of day tours has an impact on the individual's choice of daily patterns, as it turned out that a 1% increase in the price of gasoline leads to an average increase in the public transport fare by 0.123%, and this increase leads to a decrease in the odd ratio for Home-based work primary tours pattern by - 0.036%, for Home-based education primary tours pattern by -0.155%, and for Home-based education primary tour and secondary work tour pattern by -1.954%. It seems that this effect is small, but when applied to the census of the entire Egyptian society, the effect will be significant. The study also showed that car ownership is the most influential factor in individuals ' decisions in choosing their daily patterns. | ||||
| Keywords | ||||
| activity-based models; Daily Movement Patterns; Binary logistic regression models; and odd ratio | ||||
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