المحددات الاقتصادية للنقل البحري بالقرن الواحد والعشرين Economic Determinants of Maritime Shipping in 21st Century

Fouad Abdel Rahman Mohamed Yones, Rasha

doi:10.21608/jsfc.2022.299776

المحددات الاقتصادية للنقل البحري بالقرن الواحد والعشرين Economic Determinants of Maritime Shipping in 21st Century

المجلة العلمية لقطاع کليات التجارة بجامعة الأزهر

Editorial, Volume 28, Issue 1, June 2022, Page 26-58 PDF (950.53 K)

DOI: 10.21608/jsfc.2022.299776

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Author

Rasha Fouad Abdel Rahman Mohamed Yones

College of International Transport and Logistics Arab Academy for Science, Technology and Maritime Transport

Abstract

مستخلص
تبحث الدراسة من خلال بناء وتقدير نماذج قياسية لدراسة المحددات الاقتصادية للنقل البحري ومحدداته في عينة من دول منطقة الشرق الاوسط وشمال افريقيا باستخدام بيانات سنوية للفترة من 2000 الى 2019 بتطبيق نموذج الانحدار الذاتي للإبطاء الموزع ثم دمج نموذج تصحيح الخطأ لتحديد العلاقة قصيرالاجل والعلاقة طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات محل الدراسة. تم تقدير نموذجين على ثلاث مستويات اولا تقديره لجميع الدول محل الدراسة ثم تقديره لمجموعة الدول ذات الدخل المرتفع واخيرا تقديره لمجموعة الدول ذات الدخل المتوسط. اختبر تأثير الدخل القومي الاجمالي واسعار البترول والتجارة السلعية على النقل البحري. اشارت نتائج تقديرات النموذجين للتأثير المعنوي الايجابي للدخل القومي الاجمالي، والصادرات والتجارة السلعية في الاجل الطويل، والتاثير المعنوي السلبي لسعر الصرف في الاجل الطويل.
Abstract
The usual growth trend of maritime transport deviated from its usual growth pattern since the second half of 21^st century. This shows the importance of investigating main factors of maritime shipping during this period. The paper analyzes short-run and long-run dynamics deploying panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model based on specification and model examination. Two models estimated for 13 countries in MENA region from 2000 till 2019 then re-estimated for upper-income countries and middle-income countries to specify main determinants in each country sub- group. Results found that main factors affecting maritime in 21^st century is GDP which found to be statistical positive significant at both short run and long at all estimations. Merchandize trade, exports and oil prices found to be statistically positive significant at long run. Demand of maritime transport found to be more elastic in long run, exchange rate found to be negatively significant at long run.

Keywords

محددات; النقل البحري; الدخل القومي الاجمالي; الانحدار الذاتي لفترات الإبطاء الموزع; التجارة الدولية. Keywords: world economy؛ oil prices؛ panel ARDL؛ freight rate؛ trade؛ maritime shipping

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