Time Series Analysis for Forecasting Mortality in Egypt
Hussein, M., Mahgoub, Y. (2000). Time Series Analysis for Forecasting Mortality in Egypt. EKB Journal Management System, 33(1), 30-48. doi: 10.21608/mskas.2000.302249
Mounira Hussein; Youssef Mahgoub. "Time Series Analysis for Forecasting Mortality in Egypt". EKB Journal Management System, 33, 1, 2000, 30-48. doi: 10.21608/mskas.2000.302249
Hussein, M., Mahgoub, Y. (2000). 'Time Series Analysis for Forecasting Mortality in Egypt', EKB Journal Management System, 33(1), pp. 30-48. doi: 10.21608/mskas.2000.302249
Hussein, M., Mahgoub, Y. Time Series Analysis for Forecasting Mortality in Egypt. EKB Journal Management System, 2000; 33(1): 30-48. doi: 10.21608/mskas.2000.302249

Time Series Analysis for Forecasting Mortality in Egypt

المجلة المصرية للسکان وتنظيم الأسرة
Article 2, Volume 33, Issue 1, June 2000, Page 30-48  XML PDF (12.49 MB)
Document Type: المقالة الأصلية
DOI: 10.21608/mskas.2000.302249
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Authors
Mounira Hussein* 1; Youssef Mahgoub2
1College of Commerce- Menoufia University
2Institute of Statistical studies and Research (ISSR) - Cairo University
Abstract
The Egyptian population is making a noticeable progress concerning health and mortality. This progress started as early as the Second World War. In this study, some mortality indicators were selected. The data available for those indicators all over the past century were collected. The available studies and research were reviewed in order to identify high risk factors affecting mortality in general and those affecting infant mortality in particular. Using time series analysis, the best model for each indicator was estimated and checked. These models were used to get predictions till 2010. The steps as well as the methods for selecting the best model are presented. The predicted values for the mortality measures are given.
Keywords
Time Series analysis; Forecasting; Mortality; Egypt
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