Time series analysis for forecasting both fertility and mortality levels in Egypt until year 2010 | ||||
المجلة المصرية للسکان وتنظيم الأسرة | ||||
Volume 27, Issue 2, December 1993, Page 67-81 | ||||
Document Type: المقالة الأصلية | ||||
DOI: 10.21608/mskas.1993.303393 | ||||
View on SCiNiTO | ||||
Abstract | ||||
Egypt's population has rapidly increased since the beginning of the twentieth century. This rapid increase reflects mainly both fertility and mortality. Here, a class of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is used to analyze a time series of crude birth rate (CBR) and crude death rate (CDR). Predicted values for both CBR and CDR in Egypt for the time period 1992 - 2010 are derived. We used these predictions to get predicted values for Natural Increase Rate (NIR) for the time period 1992 - 2010. Needless to say: that these predictions are of great value for policy makers and workers in family planning field. | ||||
Keywords | ||||
ARIMA; Fertility; Mortality; Egypt | ||||
Statistics Article View: 24 |
||||