Using the CUSUM control chart to monitor the reported deaths of COVID-19 in Egypt. | ||||
| التجارة والتمويل | ||||
| Volume 44, Issue 1, March 2024, Page 380-396 PDF (1.28 MB) | ||||
| DOI: 10.21608/caf.2024.351793 | ||||
 View on SCiNiTO | ||||
| Authors | ||||
| Asmaa Mohammed Abdel- Rahman1; Abdel- Raouf Abdel- Rahman1; Maha Farouk Tawfeek2 | ||||
| 1faculty of commerce, Tanta university. | ||||
| 2faculty of commerce, Tanta university | ||||
| Abstract | ||||
| At the end of 2019, COVID-19 pandemic increased the reported deaths all over the world. It caused a worrisome state demands some tools to model and monitor the data of reported deaths of COVID-19. This research aims to model the reported deaths of Covid-19 in Egypt using three distributions . The best-fit distribution will model the deaths number of COVID-19 in Egypt. In addition, three control charts based on the best fit distribution were designed to monitor the reported deaths. Also, there was a comparison between two charts designed with and without FIR using MLE estimator to know the importance of using FIR. Another comparison between the two charts designed with FIR using MLE and Bayesian estimators to identify which estimator gives better results. The results showed that Poisson distribution was the best to model the data. The superiority of the chart with FIR to detect shifts early was displayed, and the superiority of the chart was designed through Bayesian approach. | ||||
| Keywords | ||||
| Goodness of fit; COVID-19; CUSUM control chart; FIR; Poisson distribution; Bayesian Approach; MLE | ||||
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