Mathematical model of malaria with seasonal evolution of mosquitoes population: case of Burkina Faso | ||||
| Electronic Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications | ||||
| Volume 13, Issue 1, 2025, Page 1-22 PDF (455.31 K) | ||||
| Document Type: Regular research papers | ||||
| DOI: 10.21608/ejmaa.2024.292529.1210 | ||||
 View on SCiNiTO | ||||
| Authors | ||||
Lassina Ouattara   1; Dramane Ouedraogo1; Oumar Diop2; Guiro Aboudramane1
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| 1Departement de Mathématique, Université Nazi Boni, Bobo Dioulasso, Burkina Faso | ||||
| 2Université virtuelle du Sénégal, Dakar, Sénégal. | ||||
| Abstract | ||||
| This work is devoted to the formulation and study of mathematical model of malaria transmission taking into account the seasonal evolution of the vector populations.The aim is to examine the impact of the seasonal variation of mosquitoes on the uctuation of malaria cases in Burkina Faso. The human population is divide to susceptible (Sh), exposed (Eh), infected (Ih) and recovered (Rh). The vector population is divided to susceptible (Sv) and infected (Iv). The basic mathematical properties of the model such as the boundedness and positivity of the solutions are established. The basic reproduction number R0 of the model is determined. The global stability of the endemic and disease free equilibrium point is proven. The impact of seasonality and temperature on vector dynamics (the function f) is developed to determine the intense period of mosquitoes. The sensitivity of the parameters is studied to determine the most sensitive parameters in the evolution of the malaria disease. We use the Python software for the numerical simulation of the model. The real data on the number of malaria cases in Burkina Faso is used in the simulation section to illustrate the mathematical analysis. This study highlights that an increase in the mosquito population leads to a rise in malaria cases, while their reduction results in a decrease in cases. It also shows that the month with a high incidence of malaria in BURKINA Faso are July, August, September and October, whereas the months with fewer cases are July and February. | ||||
| Keywords | ||||
| Malaria; vector; seasonality; sensitivity; simulation | ||||
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