Measuring the Impact of Demographic, Economic and Social Variables on Consanguineous Marriage in Egypt | ||||
| Computational Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences | ||||
| Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available Online from 28 July 2025 PDF (752.17 K) | ||||
| Document Type: Original Article | ||||
| DOI: 10.21608/cjmss.2025.382173.1179 | ||||
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| Authors | ||||
Hatem Elsayed Semary  1; Diaa Salah Metwally2; Mohammed Mosaad El-madawye3; Esmail Mohammed Hassneen4
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| 1Mathematics and Statistics Department, Faculty of Science, Imam Mohammed Ibn Saud Islamic University (IMSIU), Riyadh, 11432, Saudi Arabia | ||||
| 2Department of Accounting, Faculty of Business, Imam Mohammad Ibn Saud Islamic University (IMSIU), Riyadh 11432, Saudi Arabia | ||||
| 3Department of Statistics and Insurance, Faculty of Commerce, Zagazig University, Zagazig, Egypt | ||||
| 4Faculty of Commercial Studies and Business Administration, the Egyptian E-Learning University, Cairo, Egypt. | ||||
| Abstract | ||||
| Consanguineous marriage remains a significant social phenomenon in Egypt, particularly in rural and Upper Egyptian regions. Data from the 2021 Egyptian Demographic and Health Survey reveals that around 30% of ever-married women are or were married to blood relatives, with 72% of these unions being first- or second-degree on the father’s side. The prevalence is higher in rural areas (up to 47% in Upper Egypt's countryside) and lowest in urban areas. Socioeconomic and educational factors play a key role; women with no education and from lower wealth levels are more likely to marry relatives. The likelihood decreases with higher education and wealth. Moreover, non-working women show a higher tendency toward consanguineous marriage than those earning income. Using multinomial logistic regression, the study analyzed how variables like age, region, education, and wealth index affect the likelihood of consanguineous marriage. Findings show that younger women, especially aged 20–24, are most likely to marry first-degree relatives. Both poverty and wealth can contribute to consanguineous marriage: the poor seek to reduce marriage costs, while the wealthy aim to preserve family wealth. The study concludes that consanguineous marriage persists across generations, reinforced by tradition, limited education, and migration of educated individuals from rural areas. It is closely linked with early marriage and associated health risks such as higher chances of genetic disorders in offspring. These marriages pose significant social and health burdens, especially among vulnerable groups. | ||||
| Keywords | ||||
| Consanguineous Marriage; Socioeconomics factors; Multinomial Logistic Regression; Wealth Index | ||||
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