Predicting the Economic Aspects and Indicators for Pasta in Egypt | ||||
| Alexandria Science Exchange Journal | ||||
| Article 24, Volume 33, October-December - Serial Number 4, October 2012, Page 402-422 PDF (4.13 MB) | ||||
| Document Type: Original Article | ||||
| DOI: 10.21608/asejaiqjsae.2012.159397 | ||||
 View on SCiNiTO | ||||
| Author | ||||
| Sameh Mohamed Shehab | ||||
| Abstract | ||||
| This research objective mainly to study economic analysis for Aspects and Indicators the present and the future of production, consumption, prices, and foreign trade of Pasta in Egypt during the period 2000/2001- 2009/2010, And its future prediction to 2014/2015, Has been used statistical methods, and trend analysis models, and exponential smoothing models, Research has relied on secondary data in achieving its objectives. The most important results of the research are: The production of pasta is characterized sectorial concentration in Egypt with a Captures of The private sector and investment Sector about 90.47%, while Captures the business Sector about 9.53% of the total production capacity of Pasta in Egypt in years 2009/2010 Shows study the general trend of Aspects and Indicators Pasta in Egypt during the period 2000/2001-2009/2010, it is taking an increasing trend statistically significant Except the average per capita consumption index did not prove statistical significant, It was found that the annual growth rate for each of the production, consumption, wholesale prices, retail prices, the amount of exports, imports amount to 4.08%, 5.80%, 7.36%, 9.86%, 48.09%, 20.73%.respectively The percentage of self-sufficiency of pasta was reached to 175.02%, The average per capita consumption was about 4.23 kg / yr During the average study period. Study the Instability Coefficient for the amount of pasta production show that Ranged between a minimum of around 0.96% in 2008/2009, and a maximum of around 22.65% in 2004/2005, and shows study the Instability Coefficient of the amount of pasta exports show that ranged between minimum of around 9.97% in 2008/2009, and a maximum of around 200.18% in 2002/2003, This gives an indication of the instability and volatility pasta exports, This is confirmed by fluctuations in production, and this is reflected in the instability of export policies, And then the ability to meet requirements of export Has been used three models of exponential smoothing for forecasting, Has been the comparison between these models According to the number of stages, Statistical standards and economic criteria , has been shown expected to increase both production and consumption, the average per capita consumption, wholesale prices, and retail prices, the amount of exports, and the quantity of imports of pasta in Egypt until the year 2014/2015 An increase of some 18.96 %, 21.76%, 13.92%, 60.95%, 33.24%, 242.66%, 45.40% respectively, What it was in 2009/2010. Research Recommendation: The research recommends the need to activate agricultural industrialization strategies Generally, Pasta industry especially in the coming stage, Because it will inevitably doubling the employment rates of labor, And increase the added value, And high growth rates the Egyptian exports of the food industry in general, and especially Pasta. | ||||
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